Iran’s rivers have dried, snow has vanished from its mountaintops, and rainfall has fallen to record lows. The reservoirs supplying Tehran are now at less than 5% capacity, with officials warning the capital could run out of water in less than two weeks.
As the country of more than 80 million people experiences the worst drought in sixty years, Iranians on social media are claiming that neighboring countries are “stealing” their rain clouds. In the past, authorities have made similar accusations, saying that Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are diverting rain clouds away from Iran. In recent months, some officials have even gone as far as blaming the United States and Israel for intentionally manipulating the weather to cause drought.
All of these allegations have been rejected by Iran’s Meteorological Organization as well as scientists who have said that “stealing clouds and snow” is not a possibility.
The subject of “cloud theft” is not new, but part of the reason it has resurfaced is because of the minimal levels of rain Iran has received. Since the start of the water year in September, the country has recorded just over 2 millimeters of rainfall — 75% less than the same period last year — with 21 provinces seeing no rain at all.
But scientists believe there are multiple causes for the shifts in the amount of rain, including years of consecutive droughts that are weakening weather systems, the drying of wetlands, as well as deforestation driven by human activity. Climate change and rising temperatures are also adding to the problem by leading to higher rates of evaporation.
That said, Iran’s challenges go far beyond low precipitation levels. The country is facing a deepening water crisis driven largely by decades of mismanagement, with more than 90% of its water extracted for agriculture and thousands of illegal wells depleting groundwater reserves.
Iconic bodies of water like the Hoor al-Azim wetland in Khuzestan and Lake Urmia between West and East Azerbaijan have dried up, fueling more intense sand and dust storms that send thousands of people to the hospital each year with respiratory illnesses.
To get some help, Iranian officials have turned to cloud seeding— a weather modification technique that involves dispersing particles like silver iodide into existing clouds, causing water droplets to cluster around them, increasing the chances of rain. For artificial rain to work, however, the clouds need to have at least 50% of moisture, which is a condition not easily met in the dry region of the Middle East.
Cloud seeding is practised in many countries around the world. China did it during the 2008 Beijing Olympics to control the weather, and India has also done it to manage its severe air pollution. Last month, the government of New Delhi attempted to reduce the smog by “making it rain”, efforts which partly failed because the clouds did not have enough moisture for the procedure to work.
Back in Iran, the Ministry of Energy announced that cloud seeding operations began this fall using aircraft and drones, initially targeting areas around the Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran and then expanding onto other parts of the country.
But studies show that cloud seeding can backfire if specific conditions are not met, and winds can easily push clouds away, so the rain may fall somewhere else altogether. Experts in Iran’s water sector have said the technique most probably will not have any tangible impact, especially because many of the clouds currently forming over parts of the country don’t have the necessary criteria.
But the reality is that Iran’s environmental problems are only getting more dire. In places like Isfahan, schools, roads, and cultural heritage sites are at risk of sinking because of widespread land subsidence. In Tehran, the majority of dams supplying drinking water are empty, with the President, Masoud Pezeshkain, warning that water rationing and evacuations could become a possibility in the coming months.
Meanwhile, with no rain in sight and water resources mostly depleted, measures such as cloud seeding — or even, as some officials have suggested, “praying for rain” — are not the answers Iranians are searching for.
Experts believe the solution to Iran’s water crisis requires fundamental changes to the structure of the economy, foreign policy, and agricultural sector — as well as better decision-making coordination among the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Department of Environment.
In the end, accusations of “cloud stealing” or “weather manipulation” may serve as a brief public distraction – but the real problem is far more complex and closer to home.
