Topline
The Trump administration and the president himself have promised $2,000 payments to Americans as a direct windfall of increased tariff revenue, but details about the proposed checks remain scarce, and it is unclear if the move has support in Congress, despite Republican control of both the House and Senate.
Key Facts
Since earlier this month, Trump has repeatedly promised $2,000 tariff dividends directed to working class and middle class earners, without naming a specific income threshold for eligibility.
Despite the confidence of Trump administration officials, Congress has the power of the purse, meaning the legislative branch has the final say over whether Trump’s tariff checks will materialize.
The Trump administration’s tariffs have raised about $195 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s final statement at the end of the government’s fiscal year in September.
However, many observers have criticized the plan and questioned the math, and an analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the checks could cost as much as $600 billion—far outpacing the income brought in by the tariffs over the course of a year, even if the Supreme Court doesn’t rule against the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers.
Will Congress Support Tariff Dividends?
As of now, any check proposal appears to have a difficult path. The Republican caucus includes several libertarian deficit hawks, such as Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who typically oppose bills that expand the national debt. Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Paul said it would be “crazy to send money to people while we have a deficit,” Bloomberg reported. “I can’t make that math work,” Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., said, HuffPost reported. Other Republican leaders, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., have said they would rather use tariff revenue to pay down the national debt before sending checks to individuals. Democrats have been largely mum on the proposal, leaving it unclear how much—if any—support they could lend. Trump administration officials have insisted that the money is there, and checks will come after paying off debts. “If the money keeps coming in, we’re running a surplus right now over the last few months, then I’m sure that he’ll be looking into that [tariff dividends checks],” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on Sunday. Some Republicans have voiced support for such a policy in the past—Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced a bill last summer to send out $600 dividend checks to Americans. However, Hawley’s bill never made it out of committee or faced a floor vote.
