Space is one of the most consequential and yet least understood areas of global affairs—simultaneously a contested warfighting domain, a booming frontier of commercial opportunity and scientific exploration, and a proving ground for the technologies that will define the coming decades of global economic competition. International attention on space spiked this past April when NASA’s Artemis II mission successfully completed the first crewed flight beyond low Earth orbit in more than half a century. So to help provide an overview of this exciting and rapidly evolving domain I offer a roadmap into several of the key trends that government and corporate leaders should understand and factor into their strategic planning going forward, drawn largely from my experience of the past seven years working as Northrop Grumman’s VP of strategy and development for space, cyber, and intelligence.
Government Spending On Defense Space Enters A New Era
The US Space Force’s budget request for 2027 calls for a 124 percent increase over this year’s allocation, rising to more than $70 billion annually. This includes $7 billion for better satellite communications; nearly $7 billion for investments in missile warning and tracking; and $21 billion for the space control assets necessary to bolster America’s space-based warfighting capabilities. Additional space funding is undoubtedly also embedded in other parts of the US Defense Department and Intelligence Community budgets.
This spike in US spending is mirrored internationally, with government defense space budgets now representing approximately 54 percent of global space spending and—in a marked departure—now surpassing civil space budgets. It’s clear that space is increasingly viewed internationally as a core security domain alongside the land, air, and maritime domains.
One program that heavily affects the space domain is Golden Dome for America—President Trump’s highly publicized initiative to create a continental-sized missile defense architecture (akin to Israel’s Iron Dome system). Space is central to this initiative because of its role in facilitating missile identification, tracking, and kinetic interception. The White House is requesting nearly $18 billion in 2027 to fund Golden Dome, particularly advanced research, sensors, and interceptors.
A recent Congressional Budget Office estimate suggested that to fully execute Golden Dome will eventually cost more than $1 trillion, though General Guetlein, the program lead, has said this cost estimate is not accurately aligned with his development plans and therefore exaggerated. Whatever the final cost, the program is clearly designed to build both new missile defense capabilities and to augment existing space infrastructure—creating exciting market opportunities for both traditional space primes and new market entrants.
The Commercial Space Market Is Similarly Booming
Apart from the defense realm, there is also a rapidly growing commercial space economy that has surpassed $600 billion annually and is forecast to reach as much as $1.8 trillion within a decade. Much of this growth has been fueled by sharp reductions in the cost of commercial launches, coupled with rocket reusability and rideshare options. Experts from around the globe are already busy envisioning creative applications for artificial intelligence in space.
Other areas of innovation that could drive the commercial market include zero-gravity manufacturing (from biopharmaceuticals to biotechnology), space-based solar power (think data centers in space), quantum sensing for new science and technology development, inter-satellite and space to ground laser communication, and moon resource extraction. Control of Cislunar space—the region between the Earth and the Moon—is widely considered to be the next great arena for exploration and economic activity and will likely be a source of intense future competition between the world’s most advanced space-faring nations.
Counterspace Threats Are Accelerating
If there was any doubt earlier in the decade it has now been settled: space is a heavily contested, warfighting domain. Indeed, far from being a benign operating environment, as former congressman Cooper has noted, “We are living in an anti-satellite age, a time when nations are no longer confident that their satellites are safe, or that they can add as many as they want.”
There is ample evidence to support Cooper’s claim. For example, reports indicate that Russia is testing its ability to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite weapon on orbit, and General Saltzman, the Chief of Space Operations, has publicly noted that Beijing is investing in all six categories of counterspace capabilities, including three from the ground and three on orbit. Anti-satellite measures—including jamming, hacking, dazzling, and spoofing—are now being explored at varying degrees of sophistication by more than a dozen countries including the US, China, Russia, India, Iran, and North Korea. Any nation with assets on orbit must now plan and budget for the full range of these threats.
The global use of commercial satellites for military intelligence is also on the rise, illustrated by the US government’s request at the height of the fighting in Iran that commercial companies restrict imagery of the conflict zone to prevent adversary targeting and battle damage assessments. Russia’s battlefield reliance on Starlink—and the disruption caused when Space X cut off unverified terminals in February—underscores how commercial space is woven into active conflict.
Questions Of Space Sovereignty Emerge In The Iran War
Countries in the future will either, in my view, develop their own domestic space capabilities or partner with space-faring nations. Again, consider events in Iran, where press reports suggest that Iran leveraged Chinese commercial companies’ satellite imagery to effectively target US military facilities throughout the Gulf. There are reports that China may have provided Iran with access to its BeiDou satellite navigation system, significantly improving the accuracy of Iran’s missiles and drones and hindering any effort to jam or spoof them. Expect an acceleration of this model going forward—where countries unable to build domestically or acquire sufficient private sector data will instead leverage access via capable space powers.
Limited Acquisition and Technical Skills A Potential Roadblock
Space Systems Command—the branch’s key acquisition arm—reportedly lost about 14 percent of its civilian workforce last year under the department’s personnel reduction policies, including hundreds of acquisition and contracting experts. This is a gathering problem, especially when coupled with stresses on brittle supply chains, raising questions about whether new space funding can be allocated in a timely manner.
This combination of inexperienced acquisition and contracting officers—it takes years to make them proficient because of the complexity of their work—and the simultaneous launching of several major space programs will likely delay deal timelines and payment flows for companies involved in this sector.
Meanwhile, many countries are also struggling to fill the highly technical STEM-dependent jobs that are central to the space economy, particularly in AI and machine learning, coding, and digital analysis, as well as in advanced manufacturing processes such as 3D printing, composite materials manufacturing, and robotics.
Technological Advances Outpacing International Norms
The gaps are wide: from whether governments will safeguard and insure commercial satellites (analogous to the unresolved insurance questions surrounding commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz) to rules governing space debris, which is increasingly important as low-earth satellite networks proliferate. Space is in a revolutionary era, and the window to establish governing principles for this domain is shrinking.
So, what are some key takeaways?
- Space is and will remain a highly contested, warfighting domain with China already established as a peer competitor to the US and a growing number of countries seeking to leverage commercial space assets and expand their own space and counterspace capabilities. The future of military warfare isn’t just about drones!
- Space funding is booming globally and will likely continue to do so for at least the next 2-3 years, offering unique investment opportunities in both the defense and commercial sectors.
- Investing in space launch is challenging given the crowded playing field, but investments in enabling technologies such as ground control, on-orbit data integration, advanced satellite communication, on-orbit satellite service (especially refueling), improved position, navigation, and timing capabilities, and cybersecurity offer considerable promise.
All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
