U.S. trade with Venezuela has increased 74.32% this year, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. This is a faster growth rate than any of the top 50 U.S. trade partners, which account for more than 95% of all U.S. trade.
U.S. trade with the world has risen a much more modest 2.63% through May, with exports having increased 15.09% and imports having slipped 4.80%.
What is going on is a case study in how presidential priorities can often find themselves at odds with well-defined goals.
In this case, it’s putting two of President Trump’s priorities in conflict with his actions – reducing U.S. dependency on imported oil and reducing the U.S. merchandise trade deficit.
The conflict became glaringly obvious on Jan. 3, when, in a brazen nighttime attack, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and whisked both him and his wife to the United States, where they remain.
Within a month, President Trump took the first of several steps to then essentially end what had largely been an embargo of Venezuelan oil imports in place since the end of his first term.
Maduro remains imprisoned in New York on charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy and two weapons-related charges, awaiting a hearing, which has been twice delayed, and is now scheduled for Wednesday.
So, at a time when President Trump and many Americans like to pride themselves on the United States’ reduced dependency on foreign oil imports, the growth in U.S. trade with Venezuela in May and this year is all about just that.
But the move also freed up oil imports at a time when gasoline prices were surging in the United States after the U.S. attack on Iran, which led to disruption in oil shipping.
In May, oil imports from Venezuela increased $1.03 billion to $1.06 billion when compared to the same month last year. It is the largest single-month total by value since July of 2015 though the monthly total was three times that as recently as 2013.
When looking at the monthly totals by tonnage, the May total was higher as recently as January of 2019. Tonnage totals, of course, eliminate the price swings of oil on global markets.
On the year, the increase is from $1.95 billion to $3.97 billion. Given that the May total is more than a quarter of the YTD total, this suggests oil imports are accelerating. In all of 2025, U.S. imports of oil totaled $2.9 billion.
Oil makes up more than 86% of U.S. imports from Venezuela this year, whether looking at value or tonnage. Add in gasoline and the two accounted for more than 97% of all imports by value or tonnage.
The massive growth in oil imports from Venezuela also had an impact on the U.S. trade deficit. Through the same five-month period of 2020, the United States registered the first of three successive trade surpluses with Venezuela. Imports totaled $59.55 million and the U.S. surplus stood at $377.14 million, a figure that would rise to $677.28 million through the first five months of 2022.
By this year, U.S. imports from Venezuela had risen to $4.75 billion and the U.S. now had a trade deficit with the South American nation, at $2.35 billion.
While the deficit with Venezuela is increasing, that is not the case with the United States overall. The U.S. deficit with the world fell to its lowest level at the five-month mark since 2021.
Taken together, the numbers tell a straightforward story: Even as the administration talks up energy independence and a shrinking trade gap, its own actions in Venezuela are pulling U.S. trade policy in the opposite direction. The overall U.S. deficit is narrowing, but the Venezuela relationship is moving against that trend and moving fast.
