The MLB best home run bets have been in one of the longest droughts of the year, with eight straight whiffs on home run props. Cold streaks are inevitable for long-shot bets, such as home run props.
Nevertheless, with an 18-67 record and three no-bets on home run props this season, anyone who bet $100 on each of the listed home run bets has profited $461. There’s still wiggle room to get a few more home run props wrong without drying up the profit, but where’s the fun in that?
Tonight’s MLB slate features eight games, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET, and awarding bettors with ample home run props to pick from. A slugging outfielder and a left-handed-hitting first baseman who hammers righties have the most appealing home run bets on Monday’s MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
James Wood (Washington Nationals – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+267) at DraftKings Sportsbook
James Wood is launching home runs this year, hitting 30 through 531 plate appearances. The 23-year-old outfielder has drilled 21 home runs against right-handed pitching, 10 on the road and six on the road against righties.
Wood’s batted-ball data this season is eye-popping. Among 251 qualified batters in 2026, Wood is fourth in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.2%), second in barrels per batted-ball event rate (20.9%), third in hard-hit rate (58.2%), first in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (100.4 mph), eighth in maximum exit velocity (116.3 mph) and tied for 17th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (40.1%).
Wood has the optimal starting pitching matchup on today’s slate to hit a home run. Aaron Nola’s 2.05 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Nola has allowed at least one home run in 16 of 22 starts this year, including four straight and eight of his last nine. The veteran right-handed pitcher has also coughed up multiple home runs in nine starts.
His splits are also interesting. Nola has allowed 16 home runs to left-handed batters, 13 at home and eight at home to lefties.
The park factors are also a plus for Wood’s outlook to hit a home run tonight. Citizen Bank Park’s 116 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks tied for fourth. Wood should hit a home run tonight, and his +267 odds aren’t too chalky.
Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jonathan Aranda hit a career-high 14 home runs last year, and he’s matched that mark this season. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has hit 13 of his homers against righties this year.
He has hit only five home runs on the road, albeit four against right-handed pitching on the road. Fortunately, like Aranda’s home ballpark, Tropicana Field, Coors Field is a homer-friendly venue, with a park factor of 111 for home runs since last year.
Aranda also has mostly above-average batted-ball data. Among 251 qualified hitters this season, Aranda is 86th in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.7%), tied for 83rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.5%), 64th in hard-hit rate (45.1%), tied for 90th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.0 mph), tied for 98th in maximum exit velocity (111.4 mph) and tied for 41st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (38.1%).
Aranda has a plus matchup tonight. Michael Lorenzen has allowed 16 home runs at 1.38 HR/9 in 22 starts this season. The 34-year-old righty has allowed 12 home runs to left-handed batters, eight at home and six at home to lefties. Aranda should take advantage of the platoon advantage, favorable matchup and park factors to hit a home run tonight.
