The MLB best home run bets are mired in a genuinely frustrating funk, with 10 consecutive incorrect home run props. The long-shot nature of home run bets means losing streaks are part of the rollercoaster ride.
That said, they’re also priced as long-shot bets, meaning a low rate of successful picks can still generate a profit. To that point, the best home run bets have an 18-69 record, with three no-bets, but they’ve generated $261 in profit for anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run props at the listed odds.
There isn’t much wiggle room to miss on home run props without drying up the season’s profits. Fortunately, two home run props stand out from the pack today as get-right opportunities to turn things around. Two left-handed sluggers with incredible batted-ball data and tasty matchups have the most appealing home run bets on Wednesday’s MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+285) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez’s 35 home runs are the most in MLB this season. The 29-year-old bopper has drilled 26 home runs against right-handed pitching, 19 at home and 15 at home against righties in 2026. Alvarez has also smacked four home runs in the second half, so he’s in good form.
The slugger’s batted-ball data is about as good as it gets, too. Among 251 qualified hitters this year, Alvarez is first in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.0%), fourth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.2%), ninth in hard-hit rate (53.8%), tied for 18th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.0 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), tied for eighth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.5%) and tied for the 28th-steepest launch angle (19.6 degrees). Alvarez has a 22.5% line-drive rate, 48.3% fly-ball rate, 22.3% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 40.6% pull rate this season. He’s lifting and launching the ball, fully supporting his home run outburst.
He has a drool-inducing matchup against Jameson Taillon this afternoon. Taillon has coughed up 25 home runs in 15 starts this season, allowing five in his previous two starts, ceding at least one in 12 turns and permitting multiple blasts in eight starts. The 34-year-old righty has allowed 14 homers to left-handed batters, 15 on the road and seven on the road against lefties.
Additionally, Alvarez’s chances to hit a home run will get a pick-me-up from playing at home. Daikin Park’s 115 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks sixth. His monstrous power should be on full display this afternoon and result in a home run.
Jac Caglianone (Kansas City Royals – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+489) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jac Caglianone has hit 18 home runs this year, smashing 13 against righties, 10 at home and eight at home versus right-handed pitching. He’s made significant strides in his sophomore campaign.
The 23-year-old hitter also has impressive batted-ball data. Among 251 qualified batters this season, Caglianone is tied for 19th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.4%), tied for 20th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.6%), sixth in hard-hit rate (55.2%), sixth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (98.0 mph), 12th in maximum exit velocity (116.1 mph) and tied for 133rd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.7%). The most significant reason why Caglianone hasn’t hit more home runs is his 7.5-degree launch angle and 46.0% ground-ball rate.
Thankfully, when he has hit the ball in the air, the results have been good. He has a 22.2% HR/FB, and he’s pulling the ball at a 47.5% clip.
Dean Kremer is an ideal matchup for Caglianone to tap into his power, as Kremer’s 3.00 HR/9 this season are the most among today’s probable starters. Kremer has allowed 12 home runs in seven starts this year, avoiding a home run in only one of those turns and ceding multiple homers in three of them. Kremer has allowed seven home runs, a 25.4% line-drive rate, 42.9% fly-ball rate, 25.9% HR/FB and 52.4% pull rate to 91 left-handed batters faced this season.
Caglianone should take advantage of his matchup against a homer-prone and fly-ball pitcher by launching a home run tonight and cash in for bettors who take advantage of his alluring +489 odds to hit a home run.
