Are you ready for more views of the northern lights? Unlike recent forecasts for possible, potential and probably faint displays of aurora, here comes one to take special notice of — a “severe” geomagnetic storm.
Space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have published a forecast for a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm for Thursday, Oct. 10 and Friday, Oct. 11.
U.S. States Where The Northern Lights May Be Visible
“The aurora may become visible over much of the northern half of the country, and maybe as far as Alabama and northern California,” reads the northern lights alert. That’s exactly what the agency said prior to May 10’s sudden “solar superstorm,” the strongest display of aurora possibly for hundreds of years, which turned out in practice to be a G5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm.
It’s relatively rare for a G4 geomagnetic storm to be forecast, so it will be wise to prepare for a big show — though, as well as being a stronger G5 it could also turn out to be a weaker G3. Here’s how the scale works, according to NOAA:
- G2 (Minor) storms are generally seen as far south as New York and Idaho.
- G3 (Moderate) storms can generally be seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
- G4 (Severe) storms can generally be seen as far south as Alabama and northern California.
- G5 (Extreme) storms can generally be seen as far south as Florida and southern Texas.
How To See The Northern Lights
Light pollution can make the northern lights hard to see, so try to get out of the city to rural skies, checking first to se if the weather is clear. If there are clouds, you will not see anything.
The best locations will be anywhere that looks dark on a light pollution map, preferably one that doesn’t have a big city to its north. Excellent places to head are International Dark Sky Places, which include many State Parks and U.S. National Parks.
How To Photograph The Northern Lights
It’s possible that you may have only photographic aurora, which requires a smartphone or a camera to see. Here’s what to do with your smartphone to check if there are any faint auroras around.
- Engage “Night Mode,” which will be good enough to get a more impressive souvenir shot of the aurora. It likely means a long exposure of between five and 10 seconds, which makes the next three steps essential.
- Use your primary lens, NOT the super-wide lens (which is inferior).
- Use a basic smartphone holder and a small tripod to prevent any camera shake, keeping your images sharp.
- Shoot in raw, making it easier to improve your photos using simple edits.
What Is Causing The Northern Lights This Week
The cause is a coronal mass ejection — a stream of charged particles from the sun — that erupted from the sun late on Oct. 8 and is traveling quickly in the direction of Earth. It’s likely to arrive on Oct. 10 after speeding through space at 1,200-1.300 km/s, according to NOAA. “There is potential to reach G4 (Severe) upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage,” states NOAA.
However, there is always uncertainty about a prediction of displays of the aurora, as NOAA notes: “We won’t know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites.”
For the latest updates, check NOAA’s aurora view line, NOAA’s 30-minute forecast and its X account, where the latest updates are posted.
‘Solar Maximum’ News
On either side of the alert for a G4 geomagnetic storm being issued by NOAA on Oct. 9, two solar flares went off on the sun. An X-class X1.8 flare at 01:56 UTC was followed by an X1.4 at 15:47 UTC. They were detected by Earth-orbiting satellites, including NASA’s SOHO Observatory.
Geomagnetic activity tends to peak when the sun is close to “solar maximum” — the peak of its 11 year solar cycle — and close to equinox, when Earth’s axis is tilted side-on to the sun. Both of those conditions are being met right now.
SWPC’s latest forecast is for the sun to reach solar maximum between August 2024 and January 2025, though on Tuesday, Oct. 8, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA announced that a media teleconference will be held at 2 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Oct. 15, to discuss the sun’s activity and the progression of Solar Cycle 25.
Either way, the high number of solar flares and CMEs and the frequent and powerful geomagnetic storms they cause will likely continue through 2026.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
