The weather is still a conversation piece. When people learn that I am a meteorologist, the conversation typically shifts to questions about the forecast, whether I am on TV or not, or thoughts about climate change. Over the course of my tenure writing at Forbes.com, I have opined about common misperceptions. As 2025 approaches, I am reflecting on a few that still surface in conversations, on social media or within personal interactions. If you are searching for New Year’s resolutions for 2025, here are eight weather or climate aspirations worth considering.
I Will Keep Weather Apps in Perspective
Weather Apps are a part of daily life like GPS navigation systems, drones, and debates about the college football playoffs. While Apps provide useful weather information, it is important to understand that data do not come from the “weather fairy.” A significant amount of observational and modeling data is provided by the National Weather Service, NOAA, other federal agencies, and even private companies.
Apps may not be optimal, in some cases, for rapidly evolving weather scenarios like tornado warnings or landfalling hurricanes. Trusted sources and voices are still critical in such scenarios. Additionally, I find that many people misintepret the simplicity and convenience of Apps. Weather App forecasts may not be applicable at certain times of the day or at certain locations in the forecast area. I often here, “But my app said 80% chance of rain so I changed my plans in the afternoon.” My next question usually is, “Did you consider that the rain might have only been forecasted for the morning hours?”
I Will Not Immediately Share or React to Snowfall Forecast Maps Until the Source is Verified
At this time of year, there are typically a host of complaints from weather colleagues about social mediarologists sharing long-range snow forecasts. It is the epitome of the “click-bait” or follow me mentality right now. However, there are several problems. These “pick your favorite mode scenarios” often disappear in the next model run. Most credible meteorologists should not convey information based on one model run. Additionally, when those forecasts do not verify, people question the credibility of the weather community. Meteorologist Brad Panovich recently dealt with this issue on a thread on the platform X.
Most weather experts understand limitations of long-range or single model runs. However, a shadowy ecosystem has emerged that is characterized by sharing of such information without proper context and with a desire to be “social media famous” or first. Unfortunately, many people cannot distinguish between information from the National Weather Service and less credible sources. To make matters worse, people will often latch on to such forecasts because they are “wishcasting” snow or other desired outcomes. Please check sources and verify model integrity or time frames before drawing conclusions.
I Will Not Fear AI
The recent hysteria about drones, which are increasingly a part of society, reminds me that people fear things they are not familiar to their daily routines. Drones and artificial intelligence are important aspects of scientific research these days so I do not have an aversion to them. They are also integral to all of our lives but in less evident ways. Your Weather or Search App on your device is probably already using it. AI is increasingly a part of the weather landscape. University of Oklahoma Professor Amy McGovern, in a National Academies discussion, provided an excellent overview of how AI is improving nowcasting, forecasting, verification, and observation of weather.
AI will move my field forward. The New York Times recently covered Google’s new AI agent that showed impressive skill for a two-week forecast. Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza also recently documented the effectiveness of AI modeling relative to a forecast “bust” in Minnesota.
However, there are still issues to be addressed related to ethics, computational resources, and a skilled technical workforce force. McGovern is director of the NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography at the University of Oklahoma and is the Lloyd G. and Joyce Austin Presidential Professor in the Schools of Computer Science and Meteorology, respectively. She said, “AI is being used primarily by private industry right now. NOAA is getting there, but they are necessarily cautious in adopting new technologies, because they are the government entity charged with operational forecasting, and they don’t want to lose the public trust.”
I Will Not Let My Belief Systems Influence Science Understanding
2024 was an odd year. Some people thought hurricanes were being created and controlled by the government. Meteorologists were threatened for simply doing their jobs. The Goodyear blimp and aircraft landing at major airports were being called unexplained drones. Increasingly, it seems ideological beliefs based on political, cultural, religious, or other marinades are shaping certain views on science. Just yesterday, I saw woman on Facebook lecture legendary broadcast meteorologist James Spann because he challenged someone who she claimed “had a different viewpoint.” No, No, No. That’s not how any of this works. James was calling out someone claiming that the Earth is flat. What I saw was a scientist protecting facts rather than allowing opinion or conspiracy theories to have equal footing. Kudos to James.
I Will Not Overreact to Weather Terms
It seems that every year people hear a term that they are not familiar with and assume that it is new. Social media has likely heightened this tendency. Words like derecho, atmospheric river, bomb cyclone, polar vortex, and heat dome are not new to those of us in the meteorology community. In addition to social media, the growth of weather journalism and blogs has exposed more people to these terms. With such new exposure, it is inevitable that misuse or misinterpretation is likely. It adds even more to the risk communication plate of meteorology and emergency management professionals.
I Will Do My Part to Help with Climate Change
Whether you believe it or not, the effects of climate change are here and likely to worsen. Yes, climate has always changed, but the influence of anthropogenic activities is situated on top of the natural variability. Trees naturally fall down in the forest, and we can accelerate that process with chainsaws. While transformational actions will be required that involve reducing carbon emissions or adapting to inevitable changes, recent studies continue to show that individual actions can help. The New York Times recently posed the question, “What if Everyone Did Something to Slow Climate Change? Brookings also laid out some ideas related to personal actions we all can take.
The final two resolutions are just pet peeves of mine. I hope everyone resolves to spell “lightning” without the “e” when describing the optical phenomenon that causes thunder. And if it is still around, resist the urge to add “s” to daylight saving time.
Happy New Year.
