The Broncos and Patriots will meet in the AFC Conference Championship to decide which team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl. New England is a 4.5-point favorite on the road, which could set the stage for a robust rushing output from its lead running back. Denver’s rookie running back will likely find the sledding tough, and he could be in a negative game script with added competition for carries.
NFL Divisional Round Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots – RB)
Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-118) at BetMGM
Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing line of 46.5 yards at BetMGM is a slight bargain relative to 48.5 and 49.5 at most other sportsbooks, enhancing the appeal of his over at BetMGM before accounting for his excellent performance lately. The Patriots used a second-round pick on TreVeyon Henderson, but instead of the dynamic rookie emerging down the stretch, Stevenson stepped up and seized the lead-back duties.
Stevenson has eclipsed 46.5 rushing yards in six straight games. Since Week 15, Stevenson has logged 55 rush attempts (9.2 per game), 402 rushing yards (67.0 per game), 7.31 yards per carry, 3.22 yards before contact per attempt, 4.09 yards after contact per attempt, a 12.7% explosive run rate, 70.9% success rate and 21.8% stuff rate. Stevenson is efficiently steamrolling defenses.
The Broncos coughed up 117 rushing yards at 4.88 yards per carry on 24 rush attempts by Buffalo’s running backs in the Divisional Round. The Chargers prioritized resting key starters in Week 18 over trying to beat the Broncos. Thus, in Denver’s last five games after excluding Week 18, they allowed 363 rushing yards (72.6 per game) at 4.22 yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Furthermore, Denver’s defense is worse against man/gap concepts than zone rushing plays. The Broncos allowed only 633 rushing yards at 3.72 yards per carry on 170 zone rushes compared to 774 rushing yards at 4.16 yards per carry on 186 man/gap runs. Stevenson is a much more effective runner on man/gap concepts than zone. He has only 4.29 yards per carry on 59 zone rushes versus a blistering 4.91 yards per carry on 93 man/gap runs.
Stevenson can also benefit if the game goes according to the betting expectations for the favored Patriots. He’ll have opportunities to salt the game away on the ground if the Patriots are leading late. As a result, Stevenson should clear 46.5 rushing yards on Sunday afternoon.
RJ Harvey (Denver Broncos – RB)
Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook
J.K. Dobbins might return from the injured reserve (IR) this week. He’s opened the week by practicing twice.
Dobbins probably won’t reprise his lead-back duties in his first game action since Week 10. Still, he would almost certainly steal some rushing work from RJ Harvey.
Harvey even ceded rushing work to Jaleel McLaughlin in a plus matchup against Buffalo’s run defense last week. Harvey had six carries for only 20 yards against the Bills, compared to four rush attempts for 21 yards by McLaughlin.
Harvey has had fewer than 43.5 rushing yards in three straight games and five of eight contests without Dobbins. In eight games without Dobbins, Harvey had 102 rush attempts (12.8 per game), 346 rushing yards (43.3 per game), 3.39 yards per carry, 1.58 yards before contact per attempt, 1.81 yards after contact per attempt, a 2.0% explosive run rate, 49.0% success rate and 50.0% stuff rate. Harvey been inefficient and unsuccessful. He can’t afford to lose carries to Dobbins.
The rookie running back also has a challenging matchup and will struggle to surpass 43.5 rushing yards, even if Dobbins remains out. The Patriots have been stout against the run in games that Milton Williams suited up. In those 14 games, New England held running backs to 737 rushing yards (52.6 per game) at 3.03 yards per carry.
Harvey will struggle to find his footing against New England’s stingy run defense. His under for 43.5 rushing yards is a tantalizing player prop from the AFC Conference Championship.