Americans voted for Trump, but don’t support his agenda

In a press conference in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump last week, Elon Musk, the tech billionaire and the president’s senior adviser, was asked whether the administration’s sweeping cuts to government programs reflected the will of the voters. Musk insisted that the American people had “voted for major reform” and that the administration was simply delivering on that “mandate.”

But with the severity and scope of the administration’s actions rapidly ramping up — including looming mass federal firings and a tariff war that threatens price hikes for key goods such as groceries, cars and electronics — it’s worth asking how much the public actually supports what the White House is doing. Looking at all the polls that have been released since Trump took office, we find that while Americans express support for some of Trump’s immigration policy and broad government reform in principle, they oppose most of what he has done in his first month as president.

Immigration

To gauge support for Trump’s policies and actions, I began by combing through every publicly available political poll that has been released since he took office on Jan. 20. Specifically, I was looking for any question that asked respondents if they supported* an action that Trump had taken or promised to take. As of Feb. 25 at 2 p.m. Eastern, this review yielded over 270 questions from 49 different polls. 538 has made the data for this analysis publicly available here, and we will be revisiting this list throughout Trump’s term.

By far the most polled-on issue area was immigration. I found 63 questions asking about Trump’s immigration policies, ranging from such topics as the deportation of undocumented immigrants who have been accused of committing violent crimes (supported by 89 percent of voters, according to an Ipsos/Washington Post poll conducted Feb. 13-18) to the removal of undocumented immigrants who arrived to the U.S. as children (44 percentage points underwater, 70-26 percent, according to the same poll) to whether immigrants removed from the country should be held in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, while they await transfer to their home countries (average support of just 37 percent across three polls).

The finding from these polls, and others, is similar to one unearthed by the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Opinion Research last month (though from a poll conducted before Trump took office, so it’s not counted in our spreadsheet). Generally the broadest policies possible, such as “deporting all immigrants” and “sending the military to the border to help with immigration,” score rather well with the public (52 percent approve and 36 percent disapprove of using military force at the U.S.-Mexico border in the average poll).

But as pollsters get more specific, net approval of those policies tends to fall and go underwater. The AP found, for example, that deporting all undocumented immigrants “even if they will be separated from their children who are citizens” has just 28 percent of Americans in support and 55 percent in opposition. And arresting immigrants while they are at church or school is opposed by more than half of Americans. Excluding questions that ask about the military or Trump’s declared state of emergency on the southern border, the public opposed Trump’s immigration policies by about 1 point on average.

Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants (a power he does not have) is underwater by 12 points on average, with 39 percent of adults approving and 50 percent disapproving of the order.

Race, DEI and LGBTQ issues

The administration has also moved swiftly to dismantle diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in both the federal government and private companies. Musk has been particularly vocal about these issues, calling DEI initiatives wasteful and racist. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order suspending DEI-related hiring policies in the federal workforce and rolling back funding for federal projects and schools that use DEI language — the latter of which has run into civil rights challenges in the judiciary.

Overall, Trump’s DEI-related policies are net negative with the public, with 45 percent approving and 47 percent opposing them. Here too we see the same dynamic of marginal support for broad action and opposition to more narrow proposals and their consequences. For example, according to a TIPP Insights poll, “eliminat[ing] DEI programs in the federal government” is popular (45 percent to 42 percent), but according to a late January Ipsos poll, “closing all federal government DEI offices and firing all federal employees working in DEI initiatives” is not (44 percent to 51 percent). A Data for Progress poll conducted Jan. 24-26 asked about terminating all DEI programs “and placing their employees on administrative leave,” and found 43 percent of the public in favor and 45 percent opposed.

No pollster has yet asked about the Department of Justice ordering investigations of private companies that use DEI, plausibly the more controversial use of federal power.

Trump has also issued several executive orders about sex and gender. The most popular is a Feb. 5 order titled “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports,” which ends federal funding for any educational institution that allows transgender women to participate in female sports programs or enter female locker rooms in schools. This policy is popular with 65 percent of adults, per an Echelon Insights poll from Feb. 10-13, and with 64 percent per a Feb. 9-11 YouGov poll. On average, it is net positive by 32 points. Similarly, the public approves of a Trump order to officially recognize only two sexes and remove references to “gender” (replacing them with “sex”) from all official federal business.

However, the public opposes the president’s efforts to remove transgender people from military service, with 41 percent approving in the average poll and 49 percent disapproving.

Tariffs and trade policy

The president’s proposed tariffs on imports from other countries have also been plentifully polled. To date, Trump has proposed four different tariffs: 10 percent on all imports from China, 25 percent on all imports from Mexico and Canada** and an additional 25 percent tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from every country. For now, Trump has paused the blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico but let the China and metals tariffs go into effect.

According to the polls we have collected, of the four proposals, only the tariffs on Chinese goods are popular with the American people: 50 percent support them and 41 percent oppose them, on average. By contrast, just 36 percent of people support the tax on Canadian imports, with 54 percent opposed, in the nine questions that asked about this policy. The tariff on Mexico had a net approval rating of -12 points (39 percent in favor, 51 percent opposed). The extra duty on steel and aluminium imports is 9 points underwater.

When they are asked about the economic consequences of tariffs — including rising prices domestically — voters have tended to favor them less. In an Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted last December, 29 percent of respondents agreed with the statement, “It’s a good idea for the U.S. to charge higher tariffs on imported goods even if prices increase,” whereas 42 percent disagreed. Polls show most Americans believe tariffs will increase inflation for everyday goods. Plausibly, they mostly oppose them as a result.

DOGE and government funding

Perhaps the most sweeping changes have come under the umbrella of government reform, whereby Musk and Trump have sought to eliminate a range of government functions and fire employees en masse. Musk, in his capacity as the head of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, has pushed for sweeping budget cuts and the outright elimination of several government agencies, including the U.S. Agency for International Development and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

But while Americans support efficiency and progress in vague terms, they don’t like the specifics. When Data for Progress asked a sample of adults whether they approved of establishing DOGE, 46 percent said they were in favor and 36 percent opposed it. Quantus Insights got similar results asking about Musk’s “efforts in collaboration with President Trump’s DOGE.” But when Ipsos asked whether people support “a task force for cutting federal spending led by Elon Musk,” 53 percent said they disapproved, and only 42 percent said they approved.

Musk and Trump have also not approached the spending cuts in ways Americans want. Sixty-two percent told Ipsos they did not support Musk and the White House “temporarily freezing federal funding for government grants and services,” which Musk’s DOGE has done (potentially in violation of federal law and the Constitution). And only 30 percent of the public wants Musk and Trump to be able to block “spending that Congress has approved for all government grants,” with 61 percent opposed. On average, when people are asked about DOGE or funding cuts, they respond net negatively by 9 points, with 39 percent in favor of Musk’s work and 48 percent opposed.

Trump is more popular than Trumpism

The surveys on Musk and DOGE reveal stubborn support for government spending that conservatives have long had trouble grappling with. Other polls illustrate a future challenge for the White House and Congress: How can they reduce taxes, one of the more popular parts of Trump’s agenda, while avoiding reducing popular spending?

According to an AP-NORC poll conducted shortly before Trump took office, 67 percent of adults think the U.S. government spends too little on Social Security; 61 percent say too little on Medicare; 65 percent too little on education; 62 percent too little on assistance to the poor; and 55 percent too little on Medicaid. Yet these are the programs Republicans are targeting for cutting in order to offset reduced revenues from lower taxes on corporations and richer Americans.

Trump’s allies and conservative commentators have run into a classic finding in political science: Voters are “symbolically conservative” but “operationally liberal.” That is, they support liberal social programs and government spending at higher rates than they identify as liberals; to put it in inverse terms, people are more likely to call themselves conservative than they are to support the average conservative policy. It is also generally easier to sell people on vague language and abstract goals (“Reduce the size of government! Make programs more efficient!”) than it is to sell them on the steps it would take to accomplish them (“Fire a ton of people! Make benefits harder to get!”).

A related divide is how people feel toward Trump the man versus how they feel toward his agenda. According to 538’s average of presidential job approval polls, 48.1 percent of adults currently approve of Trump and 47.4 percent disapprove. However, in our new dataset of Trump issue polls, average support for his agenda is 7 points underwater, with just 38 percent supporting his policies and executive orders and 46 percent opposing them.

Our new data sheds light on the question of whether the American people voted for everything they’re getting under Trump or whether they supported him for other reasons. Given his agenda is currently 11 points lower than the vote share he won in the 2024 presidential election (49.8 percent), the most likely answer is that this isn’t what Americans had in mind when they voted for him.

Footnotes

*I included alternative wordings, such as “approve” and “favor.”

**Energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at 10 percent.

Americans voted for Trump, but don’t support his agenda originally appeared on abcnews.go.com