Only two weekends of regular season play and a championship weekend remain until the CFP committee reveals its final ranking on December 7. Indeed, time is precious, though there is enough of it for teams on the outside looking in to alter the playoff picture. That includes Miami and the ACC, which is as convoluted as can be at this stage.
Here is a look at teams that still have hope in each of the four power conferences.
ACC
Mario Cristobal’s team appears to be in the best shape at No. 13. Appearances, though, can be deceiving. The ‘Canes are serving as the convenient occupant of the top spot among ACC members despite not controlling their destiny as far as participating in the conference championship game, something that requires help. Help is also in need as far an at-large bid, which would mean a bump up to No. 10. (At this point, the ACC champ would be No. 11 while the G5 rep is locked in at No. 12).
With two conference defeats, Miami is on the outside looking in at four one-loss teams: No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 19 Virginia and unranked Pitt and SMU, which has a November 1 win over the Hurricanes. Miami’s remaining schedule consists of a pair of road dates at Virginia Tech and Pitt.
Speaking of Pitt, the Panthers possess many of the keys as far as who will meet in Charlotte on the evening of December 6 for the ACC championship. That’s because the Panthers not only host Miami on Thanksgiving weekend, but are at Georgia Tech this week. That is the Yellow Jackets’ final conference matchup and a win would send Brent Key’s team to Charlotte.
Virginia is off this week before their traditional clash with Virginia Tech, which is in Charlottesville. It is possible the Cavaliers, who have lost to Wake Forest and NC State, though the latter oddly was of the non-conference variety, will have clinched a spot in the championship game by the time the rivalry kicks off. Losses by the other one loss teams this week would do the trick.
What hurts SMU is there is no head-to-head with the other one-loss teams. Because of that, the Ponies, whose only league loss was to Wake Forest, do not control their own destiny. There is a chance for SMU to return to Charlotte and the CFP, though, thanks to the key head-to-head matchups over the next two weeks noted above. For Rhett Lashlee, it starts with defeating Louisville at home and then Cal on the road. From there, SMU has to hope multiple scenarios play out in its favor, including potential ACC tiebreakers. The aforementioned win over visiting Miami on November 1 could prove large.
Big Ten
For No. 15 USC and No. 18 Michigan it is not so much about the Big Ten championship game as it is the possibility of being the third team from the conference to make the playoff. The Wolverines, who lost to the Trojans by 18 points at the Coliseum on October 11, have their regular-season finale against No. 1 Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Defeat Maryland this week and the Buckeyes next week and the maize and blue have a strong case for making the playoff. Would it be enough to move ahead of most of the other two loss teams? Help will likely be required especially with the head-to-head loss to USC.
The Trojans, who defeated what was No. 21 Iowa last week in L.A., lost by two at No. 21 Illinois and by 10 at No. 9 Notre Dame last month, but have No. 7 Oregon in Eugene on Saturday. Win that and take care of business against UCLA in the Coliseum and USC could be the conference’s third playoff rep.
Big 12
The Holy War rivals would be the first two teams out in the third CFP ranking. BYU checks in at No. 11 and, as of now, would be jettisoned to make room for the ACC champ. Utah is No. 12, which is reserved for the team that emerges from the Group of Five.
The Cougars, who held off (24-21) the visiting Utes in mid-October, have a path to the Big 12 championship game. They cannot slip, though. Win at Cincinnati this week, against UCF next week and they will be play for the conference title, likely against No. 5 Texas Tech in a rematch of their November 8 loss (29-7) in Lubbock. Another loss at the hands of the Red Raiders, especially if it’s another lopsided affair – the Cougs could only muster 255 yards and turned the ball over three times – could leave them with slim hope for a spot at the playoff table.
The Utes could pounce should their rival stumble against the Bearcats or Knights. Kyle Whittingham’s team hosts Kansas State on Saturday and, on a short week, travels to Kansas next Friday. Arizona State, which slipped into the ranking at No. 25, has a head-to-head loss to Utah. They need a ton of help in getting to the Big 12 championship, though nothing would matter unless Cincinnati tops BYU this week.
SEC
No. 14 Vanderbilt needs a number of dominoes ahead of them to fall in order to have a shot at an at-large bid. Of course, first things first, and Clark Lea’s team needs to take care of its own business. That means getting past visiting Kentucky and No. 21 Tennessee in Knoxville.
