Silicon Valley has long reigned as the king of unicorn development, but its dominance is increasingly challenged by rising venture hotspots like Shenzhen, Beijing, Singapore, and Tel Aviv. Now, Europe is positioning itself as a fresh challenger.
A recent article highlights the 5-hour radius around London as an emerging contender ready to challenge the supremacy of Silicon Valley as a leading innovation and venture ecosystem, and establish itself as the “new Palo Alto.” Can Europe succeed in its quest to become a leader in the world of unicorn development — and potentially beat Silicon Valley?
Will Europe Succeed Against Silicon Valley?
To assess Europe’s prospects, it’s crucial to first understand why Silicon Valley succeeds and whether Europe can do better. Although many regions aspire to emulate and surpass Silicon Valley, few have come close – especially in the democratic world.
3 Reasons Why Silicon Valley Dominates the World of Unicorns
#1. Silicon Valley leads in emerging industries.
Nearly every billion-dollar venture, from Walmart in the 1960s to Airbnb in the 2000s, started by leveraging disruptive technologies, and by reshaping entire sectors with revolutionary trends. Revolutionary trends and technologies are key to unicorn development because they help new ventures start by serving unserved or underserved markets with new solutions and new business models. Existing companies find it difficult to easily adopt the new business models without high risk and without disrupting their existing core business. Disrupting an industry helps a venture become a unicorn while beating existing giants. Silicon Valley excels at this, producing corporations like Apple, Uber, and Airbnb. In contrast, Europe’s notable successes, like the Samwer Brothers, have often focused on cloning Silicon Valley’s unicorns rather than pioneering entirely new industries.
Question: Can Europe and its tech hubs in London, Berlin, Amsterdam, and elsewhere develop the global leadership needed to challenge Silicon Valley’s dominance? According to Mark Zuckerberg, Europe does not seem to be positioning itself as a leader in AI, which is the hot industry for ventures today ? Is his assessment accurate?
2. Predicting venture success in emerging industries is nearly impossible
VCs fail on about 80% of their ventures because predicting winners in emerging industries is extremely challenging even for seasoned investors. Apple and Google were initially rejected by multiple VCs and Airbnb struggled to attract any angels during its early pitches. But Silicon Valley has a dense ecosystem of entrepreneurs eager to start high-potential ventures and a robust network of angels ready to provide early-stage funding, and a few successes take off to lead emerging industries.
Silicon Valley’s Top-20 VCs also gain an edge over other VCs by investing early after Strategy Aha when risk is high, but when they see a path to a homerun. To improve their odds, they replace the entrepreneur with a professional CEO in up to 85% of their ventures and invest heavily to succeed. For example, Benchmark Partners invested in eBay after Pierre Omidyar proved the venture’s potential, and then replaced him with professional-CEO Margaret Whitman. Interestingly, nearly all the Top 20 VCs are in Silicon Valley or have offices there.
Question: Does Europe have what it takes – leading-edge entrepreneurs, bold angels with guts, and skilled VCs with capital – to dominate after strategy Aha?
#3. Many unicorn-potential entrepreneurs are needed, and Silicon Valley attracts the world’s best.
In the world of venture capital, success is a numbers game. VCs fund approximately 100 out of 100,000 ventures, and only one is likely to become a VC-funded unicorn. Silicon Valley’s unparalleled success lies in its ability to attract a critical mass of global unicorn-potential entrepreneurs willing to risk their time and talent, alongside a robust network of angels willing to risk their capital.
Since the 1970s, Silicon Valley has continuously replenished its entrepreneurial talent through successive industry waves—from semiconductors to AI. Crucially, Silicon Valley’s advantage doesn’t end with talent attraction. After Aha, the Valley’s Top 20 VCs step in with significant funding using Capital-as-a-Weapon to outcompete rivals and dominate emerging industries. Silicon Valley wins if any one of its numerous ventures succeeds – and they seem to do so repeatedly.
Question: Can Europe develop or attract and retain the scores of qualified, motivated, unicorn-potential entrepreneurs, and risk-loving experienced angels needed to drive its Unicorn-Entrepreneur Ecosystem, or will this talent migrate to Silicon Valley, like the Collison brothers of Stripe who emigrated from Ireland?
MY TAKE: The true foundation of Silicon Valley lies in its Unicorn-Entrepreneur Ecosystem, not the VC Ecosystem. While venture capitalists play a role in scaling success, they often arrive after “Aha,” crow about their successes while glossing over their failures. Without unicorn-potential entrepreneurs driving innovation and angels taking risks, the VC model would crumble.
For Europe to thrive, it must prioritize building its own Unicorn-Entrepreneur Ecosystem as the cornerstone of sustainable growth. This means equipping a broad, diverse, motivated population with the skills and mindset to identify emerging opportunities and launch ventures independently of venture capital. After all, no one can predict the next unicorn by analyzing a pitch or judging an individual’s charisma; the magic lies in fostering an environment where bold action and entrepreneurial spirit, combined with unicorn skills, can flourish. Europe’s success will depend on creating pathways for ventures in emerging industries. By empowering entrepreneurs to act with finance-smart skills, Europe can ignite its own wave of unicorns based on its entrepreneurs and not by reliance on venture capital.
Also, Silicon Valley operates much like a casino, where unicorn-potential entrepreneurs, experienced angels, and VCs gamble on emerging trends with hopes of hitting the jackpot. In this high-stakes game, many ventures fail, but the “house” – Silicon Valley’s ecosystem – wins by positioning itself to benefit even from a few successful bets. Among competing innovation hubs, Silicon Valley remains unrivaled. The region’s combination of top-tier talent, access to capital, and a culture of relentless innovation makes it the best organized and most strategically positioned “casino” in the world. Based on Zuckerberg’s analysis, it’s highly doubtful that Europe will surpass Silicon Valley in 2025. Europe may have to wait until Silicon Valley becomes complacent with its riches or restrictive in its immigration policies.
For more on the Unicorn-Entrepreneur Ecosystem, write to me.
