Regulatory mandates – including one to phase out coal power – could help create a series of ‘positive tipping points’ to reduce emissions and decarbonize, according to a new analysis.
The report by researchers at the University of Exeter, in partnership with Climate Group, outlines how certain policies could trigger tipping points, while accelerating the transition of the global economy away from fossil fuels.
It also calls on countries to work together to accelerate deployment of clean technologies to drive down costs and enable them to outcompete fossil fuels across all major emitting sectors.
The researchers looked at four key sectors – power, heating, light road transport and heavy road transport.
The recommended mandates include phasing out coal power by 2035 in developed countries, and by 2045 in developing countries.
According the analysis, this would help accelerate movement to the next tipping point, when new solar power with battery storage costs less than only the operational costs of existing coal or gas plant
The report also recommends requiring an increasing proportion of car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, reaching 100% by 2035 and a commitment to require a rising proportion of heating appliance sales to be heat pumps, reaching 100% by 2035 also.
According to the researchers, these regulatory mandates would also have a knock-on effect, accelerating change in other sectors as well.
The University of Exeter’s Professor Tim Lenton said the “only really credible way” of keeping global temperatures rising to less than two degrees this century is through “radically accelerating action” in an online press conference.
“We wanted to really want to unpick the possibility that tipping points could cascade in a good way, not just within that sector or across nations, but in a way that could encourage tipping in other sectors,” said Profesor Lenton.
“Mandates are clearly the most effective policy approach, and we call on policymakers worldwide to implement them at speed,” he added.
“Failure to do will have high human and economic costs.”
Lead author Dr. Femke Nijsse said a zero-emission mandate for cars showed the best potential for being a ‘super-leverage point’ in terms of a global transition.
For example, Dr Nijsse said the mandate could also boost the growing market for second-heat electric car batteries, which could be used for other purposes, like grid storage.
“If you implement all these policies together at the same time, you can gain additional emission savings,” she said during the press conference.
“And we concluded that these savings would be 2.5% by when you do everything, rather than each sectoral transitions at a time, and that’s equivalent to the total current carbon emissions of Vietnam.”
Co-author and director of the non-profit S-Curve Economics, Simon Sharpe said governments are often told the most efficient way of reducing emissions is through a carbon pricing system, which taxes greenhouse gas emissions.
But Sharpe added in the press conference the study shows regulations in the form of clean technology mandates are “significantly stronger”.
“Governments really should not just assume that carbon pricing is going to be the best, if anything the opposite is likely to be true,” he explained.
Commenting on the report’s findings, Vic Shao, chief executive and founder of DC Grid, said the battle for the lowest cost of energy generated has now been won by solar and energy storage in most parts of the world in an email.
“You can put in policies and regulations to phase out coal, but by and large, the problem will take care of itself just by pure economics,” added Shao.
“The next frontier is in energy delivery – routing the generated electricity to the loads efficiently and quickly.”
