Climate talks in Baku ended with a mix of urgency and delay, progress and frustration. The $300 billion climate finance pledge, paired with a target of $1.3 trillion by 2035, offers hope that the world is beginning to marshal the resources needed for meaningful climate action. The $1.3 trillion target in particular, a long-term commitment, signals a shift: the financial scale of global climate action is finally catching up with the scale of the crisis itself. If realised, it could be the game-changer that aligns public and private investment with the realities of the energy transition.
Yet alongside this limited progress came a serious failure. Negotiators could not agree on the next step for phasing out fossil fuels, the single largest driver of climate change. Efforts to embed language echoing the landmark UAE Consensus from COP28 were thwarted by a handful of nations representing the vested interests of the fossil fuel industry. Decisions on this critical issue were deferred to next year’s talks in Belém, Brazil. This failure to confront the damage caused by fossil fuels risks undermining the very momentum that the $1.3 trillion target seeks to create.
The UAE Consensus, forged just last year, marked a watershed moment in global climate negotiations. For the first time, all nations collectively acknowledged the imminent end the fossil fuel era. It sent a powerful signal to markets and investors that the transition to clean energy was no longer a question of if but when. That clarity spurred private sector interest and catalysed plans for renewable energy projects. Baku was meant to build on that foundation, translating recognition into action. It is clear that the uptake of clean energy is unstoppable, now policy makers need to weave in how it replaces fossil fuel energy, so that we can see emission reductions going forward.
The onus now shifts to national governments, as they prepare to transform global commitments into domestic action. Ambitious, investible national climate plans (known as NDCs) can serve as roadmaps for how countries plan to reduce emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and transition to clean energy. For businesses and investors, these plans are essential signals, offering the certainty needed to unlock private capital for renewable energy projects, resilient infrastructure, and other climate solutions. Clear, actionable NDCs not only accelerate the energy transition but also attract the private sector funding required to meet the $1.3 trillion target. Nations leaving Baku must ensure their NDCs are not just ambitious on paper but backed by policies that de-risk investments, encourage innovation, and deliver tangible results.
The $1.3 trillion target has the chance to be a turning point. Unlike previous commitments, which often fell short of their ambitions, this pledge has the potential to reshape global climate finance. It acknowledges that the scale of investment must match the scale of the challenge. Meeting this target will require not just public funding but massive private sector mobilization. Innovative mechanisms will be essential to de-risk investments in developing countries, where climate impacts are felt most acutely and where the clean energy potential is greatest.
Developing nations face disproportionate risks from climate change, including rising sea levels, extreme weather, and collapsing agricultural systems. Yet their access to finance has been limited by high-risk premiums and underdeveloped infrastructure. The $1.3 trillion pledge could change that by directing both public and private capital toward projects that build resilience and expand access to clean energy.
Brazil’s leadership at COP30 will be pivotal in ensuring these funds translate into action. Hosting the summit in the Amazon, a vital carbon sink and symbol of climate urgency, provides Brazil with a unique platform to push for transformative change. The Amazon is not just a battleground for conservation; it is a reminder of what is at stake in the global climate fight. Brazil must rally nations to advance fossil fuel phase-out, finalise ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and prioritise equitable finance distribution.
The COP process itself came under fire during the summit, but it remains essential, despite its flaws. Climate change is a collective problem that demands collective solutions. No country, however powerful, can tackle it alone. The multilateral underpinning of the COP framework forces nations to confront these challenges together, amplifying the voices of those most affected and holding leaders accountable. However, the system must evolve to meet the urgency of the crisis. Decision-making must become more action-oriented, and the process must be insulated from the influence of nations or industries seeking to slow progress.
As we look toward Brazil, the task is clear. The $1.3 trillion target must be operationalised. The fossil fuel phase-out must be brought back to the table and made central to global climate strategy. Mechanisms to mobilise private sector investment must be scaled, and adaptation and mitigation efforts in vulnerable nations must receive the support they need.
The climate crisis is accelerating, but so is the momentum for solutions. The UAE Consensus began the end of fossil fuels. The $1.3 trillion goal connects the reality of the crisis with the financial needs. Now, the key is how to grow momentum and mobilization of public and private actors behind both.
