In today’s column, I address an often-discussed AI insider chitchat that someday there is going to be an ingenious solo coder aka an individual independent AI developer who will miraculously advance conventional AI into becoming AGI (artificial general intelligence). All by themselves. This seems to be the dream of many AI developers, for good reasons, since such a person would undoubtedly be showered with immense acclaim and grandiose riches. Their name would certainly go into history books forever.
The nagging question is whether that kind of feat could realistically occur.
Let’s talk about it.
This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).
Heading Toward AGI And ASI
First, some fundamentals are required to set the stage for this weighty discussion.
There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).
AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of conventional AI versus AGI and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.
We have not yet attained AGI.
In fact, it is unknown as to whether we will reach AGI, or that maybe AGI will be achievable in decades or perhaps centuries from now. The AGI attainment dates that are floating around are wildly varying and wildly unsubstantiated by any credible evidence or ironclad logic. ASI is even more beyond the pale when it comes to where we are currently with conventional AI.
Getting To AGI By Any Means
Billions upon billions of dollars are being spent nowadays to try and arrive at AGI. Massive teams of AI developers are toiling at work daily. The assumption is that the more people you toss at the problem, the higher the chances of solving the problem. The problem is how to turn conventional AI into AGI.
Nobody knows how to accomplish this outstretched goal.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a chosen one out there that will astoundingly be akin to Neo in The Matrix and be able to make AGI become a reality. I’d bet that a lot of today’s AI developers believe in their present minds that they are that person. Sitting there at work, alongside an army of other AI developers, they know in their heart of hearts that only they ultimately hold the key to attaining AGI.
The riches, the fame, the personal sense of accomplishment, it’s all a huge allure. Some might believe that their quest is based on benefiting humanity. They set aside any personal glory. Their motivation is that AGI will presumably help cure cancer and potentially solve many of the world’s difficulties.
It is such a tempting consideration that some AI developers leave an AI maker and start their own firm to pursue AGI. Those dolts and laggards that were holding them back are no longer a boat anchor. Now, they have the freedom to work 24/7 and keep their mind laser-focused on achieving AGI. No distractions, no workplace gossip, no dealing with moving up the ladder.
Straight heads-down obsessive preoccupation with landing at AGI.
Lone Wolf Or Maverick Mentality
This belief that one person alone can attain AGI is typically referred to as the lone wolf condition, a type of maverick mentality. Cultures vary as to the assumption that large-scale accomplishments can be attained via an individual versus a group effort. Some would say that it is preposterous to imagine that AGI would be arrived at by one person working alone. Not possible. Impossible.
A crucial factor is whether the individual is working totally from scratch or whether they are building on top of prior work.
The idea of devising AGI from scratch would imply that the person sets aside all prior AI efforts and begins with a blank sheet of paper. They depart from everything that has come before. In an ingenious fashion that no one right now can describe, this person comes up with a new way to craft AI and that will lead to AGI.
Wow, that’s a tall order. It seems highly unlikely. The odds are that they would need to use at least some aspects of AI that we already know and have in hand. A counterargument is that maybe the current AI path is completely wrong and won’t get us to AGI. The only smart thing to do is chuck what we have now and take a fresh look at things.
Maybe that might be the final bit of trickery, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. Let’s assume that the more probable route is that the lone individual builds on what we already have. Sure, they might make changes here or there but generally they would be leveraging existing state-of-the-art AI.
Tipping Point Or Icing On The Cake
The lone wolf seems to have a much better chance if it turns out that they are at the vital tipping point. In essence, AI had been advanced to the point that it was nearing AGI. The last mile, as it were, hadn’t yet been figured out. The enterprising solo coder managed to bridge that final gap.
Voila, they got us to AGI.
Do they deserve outstanding accolades for this feat?
One argument is that they stood on the backs of others and should not take undue credit as though they individually won the big prize. Their bridging might be clever, it might be the final piece in a puzzling puzzle, this though doesn’t grant them the right to proclaim they invented or discovered AGI.
Whoa, bellows the retort, to the victor go the spoils. If this maverick found the final magic, by gosh, they deserve to be anointed as the founder of AGI. That’s the way the ball bounces. You could say the same about almost all great inventions and inventors, namely they alone did not do everything from scratch and managed to build on whatever came before their time.
Worries About Safety And Security
One notable concern is that if a lone wolf did arrive at AGI, they might be ill-prepared to keep the AGI in proper check.
The logic is as follows.
We already know that current AI can make mistakes and produce errors, see my discussion at the link here. A large AI maker would presumably have established all sorts of safety and security precautions, anticipating that AGI ought to not be let loose wantonly. An individual working in their pajamas in their garage is seemingly not going to be taking similar precautions.
Hogwash, some say to that concern. If you believe that large AI makers will be ready for AGI, you might as well buy swamp land. AI makers talk a good game, but they aren’t going to be much better at bounding AGI as would even a lone individual. Get off the back of the lone wolf and don’t fault them for something that any AI maker would indubitably be faulted for.
Incredible Power And Duty
Another concern is that AGI will be a geo-political tool for nations to dominate other nations (see my analysis at the link here), and the aspect that a lone individual would have AGI in their solo hands is rather frightening.
What is the coder going to do with AGI?
They might decide to keep it a secret. There is a solid chance that the use of AGI could make them rich by using the AI to make investments or find abundantly clever ways to ample riches. No need to inform anyone else about your secret sauce. Keep it to yourself. The downside there is that if indeed AGI can cure cancer and solve other global issues, the person is hogging AGI and denying the rest of humanity a chance at great relief and peace.
The lone wolf might dangerously hand AGI over to evildoers, either by accident or on purpose. Those evildoers then use AGI to threaten nations and try to take over the world. This individual might not have anticipated how the AGI could be utilized to wreak havoc and harm humanity.
Nonetheless, they let the horse out of the barn, and we are all the worse off accordingly.
Being Ingenious Is Seriously Questioned
Does this rugged individual that attains AGI have to be ingenious?
Some would say that such a person doesn’t have to be much more than average. Here’s the deal. Under the tipping point notion, also labeled as the last straw theory, a solo coder might try something that just so happens to tilt AI into becoming AGI. The developer might not have had any clue beforehand that they would prevail in attaining AGI.
When Edison was trying to find the right filament to make viable light bulbs, he reportedly made several thousand attempts. It could be that a solo coder just keeps grinding away and manages to get lucky by finding the right aspect that shifts AI into AGI.
A chuckle among AI insiders is that it would be ironic if some mediocre AI developer was the one who happened to fall into the miracle of achieving AGI. Imagine the frustration and exasperation of all the world’s brightest AI developers. They would be chagrined that a less-than-stellar AI person almost mindlessly struck gold by sheer dumb luck.
That idea that being ingenious isn’t a necessary requirement gives tremendous hope to a lot of those AI developers who are desirous of being the one solo coder to discover or invent AGI. Though other AI developers might thumb their nose at you now, aha, wait until you are sitting on top of the world as the celebrated deviser of AGI.
Remember the famous line by Robert Frost: “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.”
Good luck to all those adventurous mavericks seeking to achieve AGI.
