Europe needs a cheap vehicle to fire-up the electric revolution and maybe the Dacia Spring is the one.
The Spring, made in China for Renault’s value brand Dacia, starts at £14,995 ($19,100) after tax and is currently Europe’s cheapest EV.
Sales of EVs in Europe have stalled and that is bad news for the industry’s huge sales targets set by the European Union. EVs might win a market share of around 20% this year but have to accelerate to around 80% in 2030 and 100% by 2035.
French automotive consultancy Inovev has led the way pointing to the impossibility of the targets, saying in a report earlier this year EV sales would account for only 40% of the European market by 2030. Seriously affordable EVs will be required to meet those targets. Inovev supports splitting the market for EVs, requiring the premium sector to meet the targets, while cheap ICE cars would be allowed. The rules could be different for countries too, with poor nations being allowed ICE vehicles for longer, while the likes of Germany and France take the strain for EVs.
“Small and affordable EVs are a necessity for Europe if we want to reach the zero-emission objective in 2035. We do not think it will be achievable in 2035,” Jamel Taganza, vice-president of Inovev, said in an email exchange.
“We maintain this forecast for the moment, but it could be even lower with the current political and economic situation in Europe,” he said in an email exchange.
EV success requires a mass market driven by buyer enthusiasm not tax-payer-funded subsidies from European governments. European manufacturers talk glibly of their plans to make lots of “affordable” EVs but with current starting prices averaging around €30,000 ($31,500), next year’s crop of entrants like the Citroen C-zero, Fiat Panda, and the Renault Twingo electric in 2026 are unlikely to penetrate the sub-€20,000 ($21,000) barrier.
Little chance of meeting EU targets
In China there is a huge market for very cheap EVs. Some costing less than $10,000 are designed as no-frills utility machines, best for local commuting, school runs, and shopping. They have no pretensions for high-speed, long-distance cruising. This is what Europe requires.
European EV makers can see there is little chance of reaching the mandated EU targets, and German companies like VW, BMW, and Mercedes are seeking their dilution. The German government has suggested leaving the rules unchanged but canceling the fines. This is causing consternation amongst net-zero champions.
EV sales in 2024 will reach about 2 million in Europe, but will need to more than quadruple to reach the 2030 target. Recent forecast downgrades agree the target is getting further away. In late November, investment researcher Jefferies slashed more than two million sales from its 2030 forecast. The 2030 forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%, down from the previous 50%. In April investment bank UBS cut its forecast for European EV sales to 8.3 million in 2030 compared with its previous estimate of 9.6 million. But its latest unchanged forecast for 2030, suggests a plateau has been reached.
Tim Dallmann from the International Council on Clean Transportation said progress has been made in the global transition to zero CO2 emissions vehicles but the U.N.’s Paris agreement on climate change targets face significant barriers.
“While progress has been made, critical roadblocks including supply chain constraints, insufficient charging infrastructure, and policy uncertainty, are preventing critical investment in ZEV technologies and hindering consumer adoption,” he said in a statement.
Dallmann, International Partnerships Director at ICCT, could have included a lack of cheap EVs.
Global leaders need to double down
“As it currently stands, achieving a Paris-aligned pathway requires an emissions reduction beyond what’s projected under current policies. Global leaders need to double down on stronger ZEV policies, encourage greater international cooperation and boost demand-side incentives to drive adoption,” Dallmann said.
His comments came as many European governments find themselves under pressure to do the reverse. Germany’s early election in February is likely to echo voter resentment about net zero. The new Trump Administration in the U.S. has made it clear it will support internal combustion engines.
Whatever happens, small EVs are essential but Inovev doesn’t think there will be enough.
“European mainstream carmakers are just starting to launch (small EVs) but it won’t be enough for the targets. So it means that we need other players to propose new products, including and especially from Chinese carmakers despite tariffs. Let’s be clear, Europe cannot stop the development of Chinese carmakers in Europe, because we need them also,” Inovev’s Taganza said.
Inovev reckons the premium sector could concentrate on EVs, while cheaper vehicles could have an increasing proportion of ICE vehicles, with the entry-level at 50%.
Essentially just golf carts
If European manufacturers are unwilling or unable to make profits from bare-bones EVs, which would essentially be just golf carts with doors and windows, wouldn’t this tempt outsiders to step in?
“I do not believe that an outsider could really develop a mass product for the auto market. It requires heavy capitalizations,” Taganza said.
Despite protests from environmentalists, the EU will be forced to water down its CO2 plans.
“We think that the reality of the demand will catch up the EU decisions. And we believe that the 2035 objective will not be kept as it is. Surely, they will not cancel it but make some openings for new thermal vehicles.”
