Walt Disney Co. is hemorrhaging roughly $30 million in revenue every week that its networks remain off YouTube TV, according to a new analysis from Morgan Stanley — adding fresh urgency to a standoff that has already stretched into its second week.
The blackout, which began Oct. 30 after contract talks collapsed, has left ESPN, ABC and other Disney-owned channels unavailable to YouTube TV’s estimated 10 million subscribers.
The impasse comes during one of the busiest stretches of the sports calendar, with “Monday Night Football,” NBA and college football games all affected.
In a Sunday note to clients, Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne projected that Disney’s ongoing dispute with Google-owned YouTube TV would shave $60 million off the company’s revenue if the outage lasts two weeks — or about $4.3 million a day, according to Business Insider.
Swinburne cut his estimate for Disney’s quarterly net income by $25 million, to $1.52 billion, noting the blackout could dent earnings by about 2 cents a share.
The bank’s estimate shows how much Disney depends on ESPN’s carriage fees and advertising revenue, particularly as cord-cutting accelerates and sports rights costs rise.
The networks’ absence from YouTube TV threatens both viewership and affiliate payments tied to live sports broadcasts.
YouTube TV, meanwhile, is trying to contain fallout among subscribers frustrated by the loss of ESPN and ABC. On Sunday, the streaming platform notified customers that they will receive a $20 credit because of the disruption — though the rebate must be claimed manually and applies only to active accounts.
If all subscribers redeemed the credit, Google could face a bill approaching $200 million, but analysts note that some users are likely to miss the offer or switch to other providers.
The two sides have traded barbs for more than a week.
Disney executives Dana Walden, Alan Bergman and ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro told staff in a memo Friday that negotiations had stalled despite the company offering what it described as “real savings” compared to the prior contract.
The entertainment giant accused YouTube TV of demanding “below market” terms and refusing to pay fair rates for its networks.
Google has rejected that characterization, saying Disney wants higher fees than it charges rivals such as Charter and DirecTV.
In a statement last week, a YouTube spokesperson said Disney was “negotiating in public through their paid talent and misrepresenting the facts.”
Disney has weathered similar blackouts before — including an 11-day dispute with Charter in 2023 and a 13-day battle with DirecTV in 2024 — but the YouTube TV fight is among its most visible given the platform’s rapid subscriber growth and sports-heavy lineup.
Swinburne noted Disney could soften the blow by drawing defecting YouTube TV subscribers to its own live-TV services, including Hulu + Live TV, Fubo and the ESPN app.
Still, he said the near-term hit is unavoidable unless the companies strike a deal soon.
Disney is scheduled to report quarterly earnings Thursday, when executives are expected to face questions about the blackout’s toll and whether ESPN and ABC will return to YouTube TV before another “Monday Night Football” game kicks off.
Shares of Disney were up 0.77%, rising about $0.86 to $113.10 a share as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.
The Post has sought comment from Disney and Google.
