We’re now fairly deep into the postseason, so it’s time to take a final look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL and NL Cy Young races were examined a couple weeks back – yesterday it was the AL MVP race, today the NL MVP.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
This analysis covers the complete season, and all hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title were considered. The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber has been promoted as a legit MVP candidate – but he drops from #6 as of August 31 to the last man out of the Top Ten at season’s end, with 19.8 “Tru’” Player Runs Above Average. Let’s get to it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Brewers’ C William Contreras (20.1 TPRAA) sneaks into the Top Ten at season’s end. He’s a really, really good all-around player whose performance was hampered by ongoing nagging injuries. Still, he carried a heavy workload, hit the ball really hard across all batted ball types and offered positive defensive value, though not quite up to his typical standard. Phillies’ SS Trea Turner (20.2 TPRAA) drops down a spot from #8 last month. Turner provided the most baserunning/defensive value (+25.2 runs) of any National Leaguer. He was a bit fortunate across all batted ball types, and “should have” batted .256-.307-.387, far below his actual numbers. Phillies’ 1B Bryce Harper (21.0 TPRAA) was markedly better than his actual numbers this season. He was particularly unlucky in the air (126 Unadjusted vs. 163 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). He moves up from #10 last month.
Perhaps the biggest surprise in either league’s Top Ten is Diamondbacks’ SS Geraldo Perdomo (22.4 TPRAA). His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score (62) is even lower than Turner’s (63). But he’s still an above average offensive player because of his peerless K/BB profile and ability to square up the ball on a line often, and with reasonable authority. His defense isn’t elite, but is solid. Like Perdomo, Mets’ SS Francisco Lindor (22.5 TPRAA) surged into the Top Ten with a big September. Both his offensive and defensive contribution virtually matched Perdomo’s, but he got it done much differently, with substantially better batted ball authority.
THE TOP FIVE
#5 – CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – 22.8 TPRAA – The young Cub center fielder maintains his ranking from last month. His offensive game slipped away from him a bit in the second half – he was quite fortunate overall on balls in play, and “should have” hit only .239-.273-.468. No outfielder in either league contributed as much baserunning/defensive value (+24.2 runs). His extreme uppercut swing and dead pull approach represent red flags to monitor moving forward.
#4 – RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) – 40.3 TPRAA – And now a big leap upward to the legitimate contenders for the award. Tatis moves down one spot from #3 last month. The fly ball-averse nature of the marine layer in his home park cost him 35 points of slugging percentage according to this method. While not in Crow-Armstrong’s league defensively, he and the next guy on this list also bring substantial all-around value to the table.
#3 – RF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) – 42.3 TPRAA – Carroll and Tatis swap spots from last month’s ranking. Perdomo and Lindor were a matching set of shortstops offensively and defensively – ditto right fielders Tatis and Carroll. What an exciting player. Among players discussed today (excluding Schwarber), only #1 and 2 below had higher Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Scores than Carroll’s 233 mark, and his 100.2 mph average liner exit speed is higher than both of those guys. That’s the power, and it’s likely outshone by his speed. Not too many guys can crank out 17 triples these days.
#2 – RF Juan Soto (Mets) – 50.2 TPRAA – Only Soto and #1 below offered more offensive value among NL players than the Phillies’ Schwarber (40.4 runs above average). Soto clocked in at 64.7 runs, and his negative baserunning/defensive contribution of -14.5 runs wasn’t as bad as the Phillie DH (-20.6). Soto’s 336 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was even higher than Aaron Judge’s 326 (wait until you see the next guy’s). Obviously his K/BB profile is elite, an incredible foundation upon which he builds a fearsome offensive game. He “should have” hit .277-.406-.577 this year.
#1 – DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 63.7 TPRAA – I’m not even going to account for his pitching contribution this year – though he doesn’t need it to be the MVP, it wound up being reasonably measurable by season’s end. His average fly ball exit speed was an amazing 101.0 mph this season, easily the best in the game. His 407 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score reads like a misprint. He actually was quite unlucky in the air (his unadjusted mark was much lower at 293). Ohtani “should have” batted .284-.392-.648 this season. Though a DH, like Schwarber, Ohtani gets a much lesser hit for defense/baserunning (similar to Soto, at -13.4 runs).
Fangraphs WAR has six players with six or more fWAR – Ohtani (7.5), Perdomo (7.1), Turner (6.7), Carroll (6.5), Lindor (6.3) and Tatis (6.1), with Soto just under at 5.8.
