Transportation sector emissions have accelerated the climate crisis – automobiles are the second-largest source of greenhouse gases and have nearly doubled since 1990 – but they may soon be thrown in reverse thanks to electric vehicles.
New research from the International Council on Clean Transportation estimates global emissions from road transportation and liquid fuel consumption may peak at around 9 gigatonnes as soon as 2025 and then begin falling, plummeting to 7.1 Gt in 2050. This peak and subsequent decline is happening roughly 25 years earlier than the ICCT’s previous forecast, thanks to ambitious decarbonization policies being adopted around the globe.
EVs are driving this remarkable turnaround, with policies adopted in six major markets since 2021 supercharging sales. In fact, transportation emissions reductions in just three of the largest-emitting markets – the United States, European Union, and China – are now projected to offset emissions growth in other countries.
Electric Vehicle Sales Accelerate On Smart Policy
The ICCT notes accelerated EV deployment, thanks primarily to government policies adopted since 2021, will cumulatively avoid 23 billion tonnes of emissions through 2050. If governments achieve their transportation decarbonization targets, cumulative emissions will fall an additional 13 billion tonnes by 2050.
This analysis tracks BNEF’s 2024 Electric Vehicle outlook, released in June 2024, which forecast global road transportation emissions would peak in 2029 under all current policies and trends. BNEF’s assessment may forecast a later peak but it also forecasts a deeper decline, falling to 6.27 Gt in 2035. BNEF’s assessment isn’t a one-to-one comparison to ICCT’s analysis since they aren’t comparing the exact same data, but the overall trend is clear – EVs are cutting transportation emissions at a rapid pace.
Despite this progress, the ICCT notes we haven’t yet won the transportation emissions race. Its analysis shows current commitments from nations still fall short of an EV deployment trajectory that hits transportation’s contribution to the Paris Agreement target limiting warming to well below 2C° – annual emissions would have to fall to 2.3 Gt by 2050. And peaking could be delayed if vehicle usage grows faster than anticipated, if existing policies are weakened, or if EV sales hit the brakes in major markets.
Electric Vehicles Cut Consumer Costs, Add Trillions In Economic Growth
The good news is EV sales have moved into the fast lane – global sales of EV and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose 25% in 2024 to pass 17 million vehicles, according to researchers at Rho Motion. That growth was largely due to EV sales rising 40% in China last year passing 11 million total sales, followed closely by 3 million across Europe and 1.8 million in the U.S. and Canada.
That accounting follows the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook, which forecast global EV sales would hit 17 million in 2024, and expects EVs to compose 50% of total global car sales by 2035. That pace would completely change the global auto industry and turn over fleets from gas-powered to EV, with 33% of all cars on the road in China and 20% of all cars on the road in the U.S. and EU being electric.
Switching to an EV protects consumers from volatile fossil fuel prices. Charging an EV is cheaper than filling up a gas car, and cutting transportation costs can help companies reduce their costs and slow inflation – high oil and gas prices directly contribute to inflation through pain at the pump and caused roughly 40% of recent inflationary price increases across the U.S economy.
And despite policy uncertainty, battery prices may fall below $100 per kilowatt-hour in 2025, which would pass the long-sought threshold where EVs become as cheap as a gas-powered car. Global average battery prices fell 20% to $115 per kWh in 2024 as production capacity increased, low-cost battery technologies started coming online, and low lithium costs pushed down overall battery prices. That trend isn’t going away any time soon – battery prices fell more than 90% from 2008 to 2023, and like other clean energy technology, overall EV prices will continue to fall as production increases and battery technologies mature.
EVs are a massive investment opportunity for countries and automakers to tap – worldwide, the EV market is expected to be worth $8.8 trillion in 2030 and a whopping $56.7 trillion by 2050, with most of those sales being passenger EVs. Automakers have already committed to investing $1.2 trillion in EV and battery manufacturing by 2030, and that economic promise is booming across America with nearly $200 billion in manufacturing facilities already announced in just two years since Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act.
The EV transition has become an economic engine, and the countries that invest in EV manufacturing could reap trillions in revenue. But the countries that weaken their policies and fall behind the EV race will weaken their automakers’ ability to compete around the world and lose out on sales to foreign competitors within their borders and in other markets.
Cutting Transportation Emissions Clean Our Air, Saving Lives
Cutting transportation emissions helps us all breathe easier – cars, trucks, and buses belch toxic air pollution like particulate matter, nitrogen oxide, and carbon monoxide that trigger asthma and damage our lungs, hearts, and brains. They’re also linked to heart attacks, stroke, cancer, and premature death.
Analysis from the ICCT in 2019 found that tailpipe emissions from vehicles caused around 385,000 premature deaths worldwide in 2015, costing approximately $1 trillion in health impacts. People who live, work, or attend school near major roads appear to have higher rates of health problems and more severe issues associated with air pollution from vehicles.
Research has shown that driving an EV dramatically cuts air pollution compared to gas-powered vehicles, even if the electricity charging EV batteries comes from dirty fossil fuels like coal-fired power plants, and even when accounting for air pollution from manufacturing the EVs themselves.
Everyone has the right to breathe clean air and EVs are cleaning our air while fighting the climate crisis.
Policymakers Must Avoid Electric Vehicle Gridlock On The Road To Clean Cars
EVs protect consumers from pain at the pump, cut air pollution in our neighborhoods, attract investment jobs, and confront the climate crisis.
Policymakers across the world should avoid hitting gridlock on the road to cleaner cars – it’s a roadmap to creating freedom from volatile fossil fuel prices, creating manufacturing prosperity, good jobs, and cleaning the air we all breathe.
