The thick layer of smog that is now visible from space across the Indo-Gangetic Plain reminds us that the estimated annual cost of air pollution to India alone is around $95 billion. Furthermore, The Lancet Health Commission estimated in 2021 that around 1.6 million Indians die prematurely from air pollution every year — this is more than double the number that die from water pollution. Pakistan’s statistics are likely similar though we have less data available. Recent research has shown that air pollution can also increase crime rates significantly in Pakistan. Lahore, the city where I spent much of my childhood and where many of my family still reside, has now been ranked as the most polluted city in the world for the past two weeks. India’s capital Delhi is competing with Lahore for this infamy as last year it had a run of several weeks of being ranked accordingly. There is endless blame-gaming between the two nuclear rivals on the causes for this pollution.
The pollution spike is typical of the post-monsoon season, from October to December, when atmospheric changes concentrate pollutants. After monsoon rains, pollutants aren’t washed away, and as temperatures drop, the atmospheric boundary lowers, trapping emissions in a smaller space. Stagnant weather conditions and low wind speeds have further exacerbated the situation this year. Yet, the root cause of smog is air pollution itself across the most densely populated part of the Indo-Pak subcontinent. If there was less pollution, the weather conditions would not have the same impact. Air quality is what needs to be tackled rather than just blaming the matter on weather conditions. There are several sources of pollution and all need to be targeted simultaneously to have palpable impact.
Pollution levels are heightened by behaviors tied to seasonal changes, creating a proverbial “perfect storm.” Farmers burn crop residue, and construction activities resume post-monsoon, increasing emissions. Fires in landfills and vehicle exhaust also contribute significantly. A 2019 study attributed 42% of Delhi’s black carbon pollution during winter and autumn to crop burning, while PM2.5 from crop fires can peak at 50–75% on the worst days. Fireworks during Diwali exacerbate this pollution with metal ions released into the air which are harmful to health, though their actual contribution to overall quality is not as large as often presented in Pakistan. Pollution audits in Pakistan suggested that the transport sector shared a higher burden than the crop burning.
India and Pakistan are signatories to the Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia, which was adopted in 1998 in Malé, the capital of the Maldives. However, this declaration has not been implemented beyond some data sharing on air quality and occasional seminars and training programs. Yet this time Maryam Nawaz, the Chief Minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province, expressed a desire to engage with her Indian counterpart, Bhagwant Singh Mann, to address the pressing issue of air pollution affecting the region. Recognizing that air pollution transcends borders, Nawaz proposed a regional climate conference in Lahore to facilitate dialogue and develop coordinated strategies. This approach underscores the necessity for cross-border cooperation in tackling environmental challenges that impact public health and the economy.
While the proposal for collaboration is promising, it faces challenges due to the historically strained relations between Pakistan and India. Perhaps what is needed is a third important regional player with vast experience in urban pollution control — China. The Chinese have invested in coal power plants in the country, that are also being blamed for some of the pollution. Yet, the country is also a world leader in clean technologies and has done an amazing job in cleaning up urban air quality. China’s “War on Pollution,” launched in 2013, prioritized reducing Particulate Matter less than 2.5 micrometers (or PM2.5) in urban air — which is the main constituent of smog. Between 2013 and 2020, the average PM2.5 concentration across 74 major cities in China dropped by about 42%. A study published in 2021 found that air pollution-related deaths in China declined by 60% from 2013 to 2020, largely attributed to reduced PM2.5 exposure.
Technology needs to be well-targeted and beyond gimmicks. For example, air pollution control filter towers in Delhi are largely ineffective. Similarly, proposals for using artificial intelligence and machine learning to manage air quality need to be considered in terms of their efficiency and return on investment. Artificial rain generation may help in some cases where humidity levels reach a certain point. Most of the success of urban air quality improvements in China can be attributed to smart regulations and enforcement in the energy and transport sector and forbidding open burning. China’s record needs to be emulated by India and Pakistan, perhaps under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of which all three countries are members. Such an initiative could be a tangible way of science diplomacy that could touch the lives of millions and improve relations among all three countries.
