There is now exactly one year to run until Windows 10’s end-of life becomes reality, with 900 million users still unable or unwilling to make the move to Windows 11. Absent an unlikely Microsoft u-turn on Windows 11 hardware requirements, there is a nightmare scenario where hundreds of millions of users lose access to support.
And that nightmare is slowly becoming ever more real. For the Windows 11 refresh to hit its targets, a vast number of new PCs would need to be sold. But IDC has just reported that “worldwide shipments of traditional PCs dipped 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) to 68.8 million units, during the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24).”
According to Gartner, which reported a slightly lower 1.3% decline, “the demand for the Windows PC refresh driven by the end of Windows 10 support in 2025 did not fully pick up during the third quarter, partly due to economic challenges in certain regions,” albeit it still forecasts “more robust growth in 2025.”
Canalys reported modest third-quarter growth of 1.3%, with the need for strong growth in 2025 “as a large proportion of the Windows PC installed base still needs to be refreshed before the end of life of Windows 10 in October 2025.”
But with around 60 million units shipped in the quarter and those 900 million WIndows 10 PCs still out in the field, the math is becoming problematic. While Canalys has estimated that around 240 million PCs currently in use are not technically capable of running Windows 11, the majority of new PC sales are not replacing legacy Windows 1o devices without the prerequisite TPM 2.0. In the last 12-months, only 130 million Windows 10 users switched to Windows 11 in total.
The industry analysts call out the enterprise refresh as the likely driver of the 2025 surge, with IDC reporting that “many businesses have begun to refresh their PCs in preparation for the end of support for Windows 10.” Ironically, enterprise users are also more likely to take up Microsoft’s paid, extended support options. It’s the home users unwilling or unable to pay for either a refresh or a support contract that will forge the most worrying support issue come October next year.
Beyond the Windows 11 refresh imperative, the other issue is the lack of demand for new Co-pilot PCs, with all the buzz in Microsoft’s recent updated being AI-related. “Those magical AI PC boxes were supposed to fire up buyer enthusiasm and spur the somewhat listless market for desktop and laptop systems into significant growth territory,” The Register commented, “but that doesn’t appear to be happening.”
Putting aside the Windows 10 diehards, there is also the no small number of users who are on even older OS versions than that. Microsoft has suggested that these 50 million Windows users buy new hardware to upgrade, which prompted some stark headlines. “Can’t upgrade your PC to Windows 11? Buy a new one, is Microsoft’s laughable solution,” penned TechRadar.
The reality is that 900 million Windows 10 users are not suddenly going to move in the next 12-months, and many of the 300 million Windows 10 (and older OS) users with incompatible hardware are not the ones who will drive 2025’s PC buying surge. But they are the ones who are most likely to be out of support next year, along with others Windows 10 users simply unwilling to move. The extent of this support nightmare remains to be seen, but it now definitely seems to be coming.
