The MLB slate begins early this afternoon, with all 30 teams in action. The vast slate provides many betting options for home run bets today.
The best home run bets are only 1-5 on the season. Still, despite the slow start, anyone who wagered $100 on each suggestion to date would be down just $100. There’s a reason home run bets are longshots and priced accordingly, but successfully hitting on even one can swing the ledger substantially, and a short hot stretch can be quite profitable. Betting on homers is a rollercoaster ride, and it’s prudent to keep that in mind when wagering on them.
Today’s best home run bets include some eye-catching odds. Both touted plays have odds of +400 or better. With odds like those, it’s a golden opportunity to get the season’s betting return for best home run bets out of the red and into the black.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Bryce Harper hasn’t hit a home run yet through five games and 22 plate appearances this season. It’s only a matter of time before he gets on the board, though.
Harper hammered 30 homers in 145 games and 631 plate appearances in 2024, and he followed that up with 27 home runs in 132 games and 580 plate appearances in his age-32 campaign in 2025.
Among 251 qualified batters in 2025, Harper was tied for 58th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.1%), tied for 57th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (12.3%), tied for 96th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.5 mph), tied for 54th in maximum exit velocity (113.8 mph) and 54th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.3%). Harper can still put a charge into the ball.
The left-handed-hitting Harper has excelled with the platoon advantage at home. In 375 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home since 2024, Harper has crushed 24 homers. Thus, he’s hit one homer per 15.6 plate appearances against a righty at home since 2024.
Harper has a decent matchup for hitting a homer today. Cade Cavalli has surrendered 1.09 homers per nine innings (HR/9) and 17.4% homers per fly-ball (HR/FB) to 132 left-handed batters faced since last year.
The park factors are also ideal for Harper’s chances to reach the seats. Citizens Bank Park had a park factor of 114 for homers from 2023 through 2025, the fourth-highest mark during those years. Gamblers shouldn’t double-count Harper’s dominant numbers against righties at home and the park factors at Citizens Bank Park, but it’s worth noting the park factors support and validate Harper’s impressive power against righties at home.
Griffin Conine (Miami Marlins – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+650) at Hard Rock Bet
Griffin Conine is 28 years old, but he’s spent most of his professional career in the minors, debuting for the Marlins in the Majors in 2024. He played only 54 games and hit just five home runs in the Majors before this season.
Regardless of the lack of experience in the Majors, Conine has thunderous power. FanGraphs graded his raw power 80, both current and future, on the 20-to-80 scouting scale on his last scouting report in 2022.
Conine also ripped 23 homers in 144 games and 563 plate appearances in Triple-A and 55 home runs in 247 games and 1,020 plate appearances in Double-A in his minor-league career.
Conine’s massive raw power also showed up in his batted-ball data. Among 557 hitters with at least 25 batted-ball events in 2025, Conine was tied for 34th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 37th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (14.8%), tied for 48th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.4 mph) and tied for 12th in maximum exit velocity (117.4 mph).
Conine clobbered his first home run of the season yesterday and can do so again today against Shane Smith or the bullpen for the White Sox. Smith has allowed 13 homers, 1.46 HR/9 and 13.1% HR/FB to 345 left-handed batters faced since reaching the Majors last year. Moreover, Chicago’s relievers have allowed 1.74 HR/9 this year.
Hard Rock Bet’s +650 odds for Conine’s home run prop are the best across sportsbooks. Unfortunately, Hard Rock Bet isn’t as widely available as many other sportsbooks. Thankfully, the +630 odds offered at DraftKings Sportsbook are also among the most tantalizing odds for all home run bets today, making Conine’s home run prop worth betting at DraftKings Sportsbook, where Hard Rock Bet isn’t available.
