The past two and a half years have been tough on most countries, but few have suffered as much as the United Kingdom. The pandemic has been the ultimate stress test for a nation’s basic functioning. Does the healthcare system have sufficient capacity and resources to bounce back? Is the state capable of supporting people as they seek to put their lives back on track? Time and again, Britain has come up short.
Perhaps the most damning statistic is what has happened to the UK workforce. Between January 2015 and January 2020, economic inactivity gradually descended in a virtually straight line as more and more people found work. Had this continued, there would be about 8.3mn economically inactive working-age Britons today. Instead, we have seen a steep climb to 9mn, the only country in the developed world where people have continued dropping out in ever greater numbers beyond the acute phase of the pandemic.
But if the surface-level statistic is damning, then what lies beneath is even worse. By analysing detailed data from the UK’s Labour Force Survey, I have been able to explore what has caused this sharp reversal. It reads like a catalogue of modern Britain’s greatest hits.
First, a crumbling healthcare system. After a years-long descent, the number of working-age Britons unable to work due to chronic pain has climbed by almost 200,000 in the past two years relative to its former trajectory.
Next, a mental health crisis. The second biggest contributor to the rise in worklessness has been people dropping out due to mental illness. The pandemic triggered a steep acceleration in these conditions with almost 40 per cent of the rise in economic inactivity explained by people with a mental health issue that limits their ability to work.
As anyone in healthcare will tell you, physical and mental conditions often go hand in hand. Indeed, what really seems to have done for Britain’s missing half million is the confluence of multiple conditions.
The number of working-age people in Britain reporting multiple serious health conditions had been declining before Covid-19, but it has since rocketed by 735,000 in just two years.
Perhaps most damning of all is the lack of a government response. While the number who are economically inactive due to illness has continued to climb, hundreds of thousands say they would like to work if they could. Most striking, this willingness is higher among those who are out of work and sick, than those who are out of work and healthy.
These figures should be a wake-up call. In 2021 the UK government launched its “Restart” scheme, which was tailored for tackling an unemployment crisis. Now unemployment is near an all-time low, while those outside the labour force have never needed more support. At the last count, the scheme has underspent by more than £1bn. Perhaps it could be diverted to those who need it most.
