Less than a year before Argentina’s presidential election and with the economy in chaos, two fierce political rivals — former presidents Mauricio Macri and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner — are both hinting they may run again, throwing the race wide open.
Fernández de Kirchner, the current vice-president and a veteran on the left of the ruling Peronist party, was greeted by jubilant crowds at a rally in La Plata on November 17 chanting “Cristina Presidenta”.
“Everything in its own time” she replied.
The same evening, Macri was drawing crowds at a reception thrown for him by the legendary Buenos Aires football club he managed for 13 years, Boca Juniors.
Macri was touring the country ahead of a trip to Qatar for the World Cup, exciting supporters who want him to run again. Asked by reporters last Friday about a 2023 electoral bid, he replied: “Four people tell me I should be a candidate for [president of] Argentina for every one who says [president of] Boca. They alternate between the two.”
As part of his role as chair of the Fifa foundation, Macri witnessed Argentina’s shocking defeat in a World Cup match against Saudi Arabia in Doha on Tuesday. Politicians in Argentina rarely watch the national team live — some fans have blamed the former president for breaking with tradition and bringing bad luck.
If the two political heavyweights do both enter the ring next year, they will polarise the electorate, eclipse more moderate candidates and potentially open the way for more extreme fringe candidates, analysts say.
“There’s a high probability that Macri will decide to make a presidential bid,” said Sergio Berensztein, a political consultant. “He’s working to maintain his chances in 2023.”
For now, Macri is keeping his power dry. “I’m not on any list . . . this is not a time for nominations,” the conservative multi-millionaire told the Financial Times. Rather, he said, it was a time “to deepen discussions in the field of ideas.”
Macri, 63, tried to introduce pro-business reforms, woo foreign investors and stabilise the economy but was criticised for being too slow to cut spending and balance the budget. When market confidence in his administration collapsed in 2018, he was forced to seek a $57bn IMF bailout and he lost his re-election bid to the Peronists the following year.
In a new book, Para Qué (For What), Macri alludes to next year’s race. “Mild populism is not an option,” he writes. “This time there will be no time or political support for us to go halfway.”
Macri described the book to the FT as a “wake-up call” and “road map” for those who are part of his Together for Change coalition. “Given the possibility that our force will return to power at the end of next year, the book is a synthesis of my experience,” he said.
Fernández de Kirchner, who ruled for two consecutive terms from 2007-15, and Macri each have groups of committed supporters. But polling shows that both have high rejection rates, making them controversial choices as candidates.
Tensions over who will lead the opposition in 2023 are running “sky high,” said Juan Germano of the polling consultancy Isonomía.
Opposition support is roughly equally divided, polls show, between the mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Macri and another conservative, Patricia Bullrich, who served as interior minister during Macri’s administration from 2015 to 2019.
“A year ago Larreta was well out front as the opposition candidate,” Germano said. But while praised for efficient management of Buenos Aires, critics say Larreta lacks charisma and struggles to connect with ordinary Argentines. Bullrich’s pledges to crack down on crime and defend private property, meanwhile, have appealed to voters outside metropolitan areas.
Polls predict that if the opposition can unite behind a credible candidate, it should win back power next year from Peronist President Alberto Fernández, whose poor handling of the economy and the coronavirus pandemic has sparked popular anger, led to annual inflation of almost 100 per cent and prompted some Argentines to move abroad.
The opposition currently has a 12-14 point lead over the ruling party in surveys. A primary vote is scheduled for August 2023 to determine the frontrunners before the election on October 29.
Incumbent presidents across Latin America have been turfed out in a string of elections at a time of widespread discontent, most recently Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.
Ignacio Labaqui, senior analyst at Medley Global Advisors, said that the government’s perceived political weakness gives the opposition the confidence “that they will triumph no matter what,” something he described as a “very dangerous” assumption.
On the Peronist side, Alberto Fernández could run again in 2023 but his dismal approval ratings mean he is unlikely to stand. As the country’s most recognisable political figure, Fernández de Kirchner is one of the few viable Peronist candidates.
But given that she faces multiple prosecutions for alleged corruption during her presidencies, analysts said Fernández de Kirchner may opt to run for a senate seat in 2023 instead, which is easier to secure and would protect her from prosecution.
The problem for the Peronists is that the 69-year-old comes with big negatives: “People can see that she’s older, disconnected from society and in hot water with the judiciary,” political analyst Adriana Amado said.
Voter dissatisfaction with Argentina’s soaring inflation, stagnant wages and years of economic turmoil has weakened support for traditional parties and led people to back more extreme candidates.
Rising fast in the polls is radical outsider Javier Milei, a libertarian congressman. His platform includes dollarising the economy, ending state intervention, abolishing the central bank and breaking up the “caste system” in Argentine politics.
“Milei will have a good election,” Germano said. “He’s a real third way candidate for the presidency.”
