Ukrainian officials have expressed “shock” over Republican suggestions that future assistance for Kyiv could be limited if the party wins the House of Representatives in November’s US midterm elections, calling on Washington to continue providing bipartisan support.
In comments that raised eyebrows, House minority leader Kevin McCarthy said earlier this week he anticipates difficulty in passing additional aid for Ukraine, should his party win the lower chamber of Congress — a result predicted by current polling.
“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank cheque to Ukraine,” McCarthy told Punchbowl News.
David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s party in parliament, told the Financial Times on Wednesday: “We were shocked to hear these comments of Mr McCarthy, honestly.”
He added that he met with McCarthy on a recent visit to Washington and was led to believe that US support for Kyiv would continue.
“Just a few weeks ago, our delegation visited the US and had a meeting with Mr McCarthy,” Arakhamia said. “We were assured that bipartisan support of Ukraine in its war with Russia will remain a top priority even if they win in the elections.”
Oleg Nikolenko, spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, added that Kyiv was counting on “continued bipartisan support” from the US for its role in the conflict.
The US Congress has passed billions of dollars in assistance for Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict, most recently a $12.3bn package as part of a larger spending bill meant to avert a government shutdown.
But partisan divisions have surfaced over the issue: in May, 11 Republican senators and 57 House Republicans opposed a $40bn security assistance request for Ukraine. Lawmakers and analysts expect Republican dissent to increase in the next Congress, particularly as the 2024 general election approaches.
The Biden administration has said that while they expect the conflict will eventually end at the negotiating table, officials see no immediate prospect for discussions and will continue to provide lethal aid to strengthen Ukraine’s hand.
Analysts added the administration may seek to push through a large assistance package during the lame duck session of Congress if Republicans win the House, before it switches to GOP control.
Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Bloomberg that Republicans still support assistance to Ukraine but want to see more oversight.
“I think there’s still broad bipartisan support for the effort,” McCaul said. “We want to ensure that our Nato partners are stepping up to the plate and bearing the burden of the cost.”
European officials said that while they noted McCarthy’s comments, they do not believe they mark the beginning of a real shift.
Hanno Pevkur, the Estonian defence minister, visited Washington this week and said he has reiterated in conversations with Republicans that supporting Ukraine means preserving the international order.
“The main message is that it’s not Ukraine-Russia war, it’s the war of the free world and the rule-based world against the aggressor,” he said.
Eric Edelman, counsellor at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said the looming divisions between Republicans “have a very bad feel” but he expects that the US will continue to be able to support Kyiv.
“I wouldn’t say this is a death sentence for further aid to Ukraine,” said Edelman, a former US ambassador and senior Pentagon official. “There will be some Republicans that support it . . . but it’s going to be a whole lot harder because the centre of gravity is going to shift toward the more isolationist, anti-support for Ukraine element in the Republican party.”
