It’s Week 11, and your fantasy football playoff picture is getting clear. Whether you are solidly in or are struggling to get in (raises hand), it is not too late. And this is a juicy week with great on-field matchups. So, what does it do for your fantasy football fortunes?
First, remember there is an International game this week. The Washington Commanders will play the Miami Dolphins in Madrid. In addition, the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints are on their bye week. Plan accordingly.
Week 11 Best/Worst Quarterback Matchups
Week 11 Best Quarterback Matchups
Tua Tagovailoa v Washington Commanders, Dolphins -2.5, 47.5 o/u
GULP! Yes, this is a good, nay great, matchup for Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDonald. It isn’t just the fact that the Commanders’ defense is decimated by injuries and a suspension (warranted or not), and now head coach Dan Quinn has taken over defensive play-calling. This Commanders’ defense just isn’t very good. In the last month, the Commanders’ defense has allowed opposing offenses to average 38.5 points per game while hemorrhaging 451.3 total yards per game (needless to say, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane are also in play here).
Tagovailoa was not a bright, shiny star in last week’s win against the Buffalo Bills. He only attempted 21 passes for 173 yards. He had two touchdowns but also two interceptions. This was after coming off a 40 pass attempts for 261 yards and one interception in their beatdown against the Lamar Jackson-led Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. So, it’s a mixed bag. But for certain, this matchup screams for Tagovailoa to be his best.
Week 11 Worst Quarterback Matchup
Trevor Lawrence v Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -2.5, 43.5 o/u
While the last matchup was about the defense, this is mostly about the quarterback. While Lawrence has thrown 10 touchdowns for the season, he also has seven interceptions. He is first in interceptable passes, but also first in dropped passes. Lawrence averages 35.1 passing attempts per game (sixth-ranked), but is 16th in passing yards per game, averaging 222.1. He is 32nd in first read throw percentage with 50.9% and will be without Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, making newcomer Jakobi Meyers his WR1 for the week.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense is giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (174.2) and has only allowed an average of 132 in their last three games. Last week, the Chargers’ defense held Aaron Rodgers to 161 passing yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Lawrence is averaging a respectable 16.7 fantasy points per game, buoyed by his rushing ability that has him at 172 rushing yards in nine games with four rushing touchdowns.
However, the Chargers are allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points per game (13.9) and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks, and that was Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 and Jaxson Dart in Week 4.
Week 11 Best/Worst Running Back Matchups
Week 11 Best Running Back Matchup
Jaylen Warren v Cincinnati Bengals, Steelers -5.5, 48.5 o/u
This is a Week 7 rematch, where the Steelers lost to the Bengals 31-33, and Warren rushed 16 times for 127 yards and added four receptions for 31 receiving yards. That was the only game this season in which Warren surpassed 100 rushing yards.
The Bengals’ defense is the gift that keeps on giving. They are last in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 166.4. But they have yielded an average of 228 rushing yards per game in their last three games. And while the Bengals’ defense is last in rushing yards allowed per game, they are first in fantasy points per game to the running back position, with an average of 30.9. In nine weeks, the Bengals have allowed rushers to get in the end zone 13 times, nine by rushing and four with receptions.
Week 11 Worst Running Back Matchup
Kyren Williams v Seattle Seahawks, Rams-3.5, 48.5 o/u
Williams is RB9 in fantasy, so you aren’t going to sit him, just temper your expectations. The Seahawks are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (90.7) and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (17.4). For the season, running backs have a total of five touchdowns against the Seahawks’ defense, three rushing and two receiving.
It should be noted that although Williams averages 73.2 rushing yards per game, for this week, his rushing prop sits at 54.5 with -111 for him to go over and -118 for him to go under that mark.
Week 11 Best/Worst Wide Receiver Matchups
Week 11 Best Wide Receiver Matchup
Jordan Addison v Chicago Bears, Vikings -2.5, 48.5 o/u
While there is no doubt Justin Jefferson is WR1, it is Addison who is currently vibing with J.J. McCarthy, although truth be told, neither is setting the world on fire with McCarthy under center.
In a very small sample size, in their last two games
- Addison 15 targets, five receptions, 83 yards
- Jefferson, 21 targets, 10 receptions, 84 yards, one touchdown
With the frustrations manifesting last week, on McCarthy’s two interceptions that were thrown Jefferson’s way.
But this is about Addison’s matchup with the Bears’ secondary, who are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers (31.8). With McCarthy under center, Addison has a 22.2% first read share and a 19.4% target share. Jefferson will still get the looks (36.1% first read target share) and could be fantasy relevant this game (the Bears are especially generous to perimeter wide receivers), but considering fantasy draft capital, Addison is the better matchup. It also helps that Addison will most likely face Nashon Wright, who has given up the 13th most fantasy points per route run.
*All cards on the table, there are better wide receiver matchups this week, but all are problematic or have been mentioned. Waddle v Washington, Tre Tucker v Dallas Cowboys has a quarterback problem, and what Green Bay Packer receiver do you play versus the New York Giants?
Week 11 Worst Wide Receiver Matchup
Courtland Sutton v Kansas City Chiefs, Chiefs -3.5, 44.5 o/u
Speaking of problematic quarterback play, Sutton will be hampered by that, by his teammate, and by being shadowed by Chiefs’ Trent McDuffie.
But two things first, in the last four weeks, Sutton has a 19.7% target share, Troy Franklin has a 30.6%. Last Week, Bo Nix went 16-of-28 for 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Franklin had nine targets to Sutton’s four. Franklin finished with five receptions, 40 yards, and a touchdown. Sutton finished with three receptions and 24 yards.
The Chiefs’ secondary is first in team coverage grade per Pro Football Focus. They are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to outside wide receivers, which is where Sutton lines up over 50% of the time. And McDuffie specifically is giving up the 26th fewest fantasy points per route run.
Week 11 Best/Worst Tight End Matchup
Week 11 Best Tight End Matchup
Oronde Gadsden @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Chargers -2.5, 43.5 o/u
Gadsden likely burned you last week with his production. He was targeted six times, had three receptions for 13 yards. This week is bounce-back time.
There are plenty of mouths to feed in the Chargers’ offense. Luckily, they are second in pass plays per game, averaging 39.6.
Gadsden is on the field for a 60.3% snap share and has a 15.1% target share with a route participation of 64.8%. And he is seventh among tight ends in deep targets (4), fourth in both red zone targets (12) and yards per route run (2.18).
The Jaguars are giving up the fifth most passing yards per game (252,9). They are allowing tight ends the fifth most yards per game (62) and the second most fantasy points per game (15.2).
Week 11 Worst Tight End Matchup
Cade Otton v Buffalo Bills, Bills -6.5, 47.5 o/u
While Otton is usually a safe bet when the Buccaneers’ receiving pool diminishes, the Bills are the worst matchup for tight ends. They are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to the position (4.9), are allowing an average of only 23 receiving yards, and tight ends have only scored one touchdown in nine weeks against them.
In Conclusion
This is the time of year when fantasy football fortunes may succumb to the weather. Get all your information, know your matchup, know the weather conditions, know the injury statuses, and trust your gut.
Play nice and good luck.
