The exiled crown prince and self-proclaimed advocate for a secular democratic Iran shared a “message to the friends of the Iranian people” on Monday, calling for an end to the sectarian conflict in the Middle East and an end to the current regime in his homeland. Reza Pahlavi, who fled Iran with his family following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, took to social media to emphasize that the current fighting is “not the Iranian people’s war.”
Pahlavi further suggested that Iran bears the responsibility for the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks on Israel and is fueling the regional conflicts.
“So I say to you, our friends across the Middle East—our region deserves so much better. But in order to succeed, first, this regime, that has held us hostage for nearly half a century, must go,” said Pahlavi. “The Middle East is all too familiar with turmoil and upheaval. So, I know, you might fear change will bring chaos. But fear not—we will not allow a power vacuum to follow the collapse of this regime.”
The exiled crown prince, who has more than 1.4 million followers on the platform formerly known as Twitter, also suggested: “Peace is neither a relic of history, nor a distant dream, it is a promise we owe to ourselves and our children, and together we can make it a reality.”
Who Was The Audience?
His nearly four-and-a-half-minute-long video has been seen more than 7.7 million times since it was posted on Monday. It is unclear how many of those views could have been from within the Islamic Republic, given how tightly Tehran controls access to outside media, but the youth especially has sought out ways to access X and other Western social media platforms.
“Iran has explicitly blocked X since 2009, but it’s estimated that some 70% of Iranians use VPNs to get around the general block on social media sites,” explained Dr. Matthew Schmidt, professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven.
“Maybe five to seven million are estimated to use X, but these are highly suspect numbers,” added Schmidt. “In any case, Pahlavi’s message on X was repeated on many other sites, especially Telegram, which is probably the most popular banned app in Iran. Some estimates say there are as many as 45 million users, which would be roughly half the population.”
Two Views On Pahlavi
Today, Pahlavi has no official standing in the Iranian government, while his family’s history is also one with a fair amount of controversy.
“His message surely got through to enough Iranians to be widely spread through one means or another. What effect it might have despite this is another story,” said Schmidt, who acknowledged that the Pehlavi family is historically not well-liked.
“But the Crown Prince has significant support today according to a number of surveys and experts. His platform of human rights and a liberal government garner considerable support,” Schmidt noted. “Millions of Iranians separate their hatred of his father from the son, and his message is a call to stand up for that liberal vision, to not fear the tumult of a revolution, and to look toward the different future he is trying to represent to Iranians.”
While his calls for change may be noble, some would suggest any future Iran may not want to include members of the exiled royal family.
“Reza Pahlavi is not who he appears to be,” warned geopolitical analyst Irina Tsukerman, president of Scarab Rising. She questioned his leadership abilities given “the fact that he has had no professional much less government experience of any kind that would make him suitable for leadership position.”
Pahlavi has shown to be quite effective in employing social media to amplify his messaging, and according to his critics even to increase the appearance of popularity. However, some of the efforts have only divided the opposition in his homeland.
“The Iranian regime has used Pahlavi’s messaging effectively to discredit any sort of opposition, divide Iranians and foster internal hatred and amplify this message and downplay alternative opposition voices which call for a liberal federalized democracy or an equitable approach to governance that would include pluralistic voices of different backgrounds,” said Tsukerman.
The Start An Iranian Spring?
It is also unlikely that this recent video message or even dozens of similar messages from the one voice would be enough to start an Iranian spring—and not because the calendar notes that it is October.
“In theory, social media should be effective in disseminating talking points, bypassing censorship, advancing cultural knowledge and understanding, and fostering interpersonal relationships,” said Tsukerman. “In reality, due to the many misconceptions about the nature of the society, the Western-centric approach, the Western fixation on identifying the one ‘perfect’ dissident or opposition group while ignoring the diversity of voices in Iran, and the exploitation of the medium and algorithms by nefarious actors, positive and measurable impact is very difficult to achieve.”
In other words, the medium may be only as good as the understanding and the policy behind it.
In this case, the Western perception of Iran and the pragmatic approaches that bypass frauds and wishful thinking is something that needs to realign first, added Tsukerman.
“Only then can the policymakers figure out how to reach the public rather than have the conversations hijacked by bots and assorted operatives,” she continued. “That requires a very dedicated and nuanced approach to both intelligence gathering and communications strategy. And of course, any sort of effective discourse will be undercut by regime efforts to shut down Internet access.”
Yet, social media could still find a way of spreading anti-regime information to those desperate for change within the Islamic Republic.
“Such messages bear repeating,” said Schmidt, “And in what is really best understood as a political campaign conducted from afar, that message is now being carried in the best possible way: face to face, across kitchen tables one conversation at a time.”
