Russia’s Vladimir Putin wrongly called Saturday’s partial destruction of a flagship bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea a “terrorist act”. His revenge was to unleash mass terror on cities across Ukraine on Monday, missiles raining destruction from the sky in the midst of the morning rush hour. The bombardment was the most wide-ranging since the early weeks of the war. Since international law states parties to conflict “must at all times distinguish between civilians and combatants” and not direct attacks against civilians, it is hard to see this as anything other than the latest in the Kremlin’s grim catalogue of war crimes in Ukraine, one directly ordered by its president.
The explosion on the Kerch bridge — which Ukraine has celebrated but not claimed responsibility for — was without doubt a humiliation for Putin. It was a symbol of his seizure of Crimea, built on his orders, and breached on the day after his 70th birthday. That does not alter the fact it was a legitimate military target. It had been heavily used to supply Crimea and Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Civilians, moreover, were not deliberately targeted.
Putin insisted Russia had attacked Ukrainian “energy, military command and communications facilities”. Some infrastructure sites were indeed hit, leaving several regions without power and water — causing inevitable public suffering. But Moscow’s supposedly “precision” strikes also hit a city park popular with families with young children, a pedestrian bridge, museum and university buildings, and the German consulate in Kyiv — none of them military targets.
The brutality of the strikes was surely not unconnected with Putin’s weekend promotion of General Sergei Surovikin to be commander of Moscow’s invasion forces in Ukraine. Surovikin in the past led Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict, including the barbaric bombardment of Aleppo.
Given Russia’s use of dozens of cruise and short-range ballistic missiles, however, the fact it destroyed so few high-value military targets suggests either that civilian sites were purposely targeted or that the missiles were highly inaccurate. Either way, with Ukraine claiming to have shot down more than half of the 80-plus missiles fired, this was a militarily wasteful use of costly arms that are in short supply. If it was intended to signal the start of a destructive new tactic in the war, it is one Russia cannot sustain for long — at least, using this type of high-end weaponry.
One response by western democracies should be to rapidly supply Ukraine with the sophisticated defence systems it has long pleaded for. Failure to provide them only leaves Ukraine more vulnerable, and increases the torment its citizens endure — along with postwar reconstruction costs.
Immediate financial assistance as Ukraine grapples with the costs of war amid a huge economic contraction is also a priority. The EU, in particular, has been tardy in disbursing funds.
Despite the human misery of Russia’s attacks, they are likely only to strengthen Ukraine’s extraordinary spirit of resolve. Yet western democracies must also brace for potential efforts by Moscow to target their infrastructure, too. After explosions hit Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines to Germany and unexplained sabotage of cables shut down part of Germany’s rail network at the weekend, a reported cyber attack on websites of US airports on Monday was blamed on Russian hackers. As well as stepping up support for Ukraine, its allies need to increase surveillance of critical energy, transport and communications networks — and be prepared for the possibility that one of Putin’s next moves might yet be an attempt to widen the war.
