As Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House and the U.S. prepares to ban TikTok, it feels like we have gone back in time. The irony this time around is that Trump may actually be TikTok’s savior, He has undoubtedly benefited from its easy reach across the U.S., and its removal leaves him relying on large U.S. platforms. One can imagine the art of a deal coming into play as tensions mount.
Absent any last minute rabbits videoed popping up in magician’s hats, then the key date looks like being January 19. The ban would come in just before Trump, removing one of the primary distribution channels for his inauguration—notably.
The other irony which is perhaps more significant is that this is more of an issue for the U.S. than it is for China, and that matters here. China doesn’t really like TikTok any more than U.S. lawmakers—to say nothing of child safety advocates and regulators across multiple markets around the world.
The one key market where TikTok doesn’t have a viral install base is China—owner Byte Dance operates a different platform at home. Douyin is equally popular, but where TikTok is at pains to assure its good behavior when it comes to data, tracking and security, you can do the math on how that might play differently in China.
The key issue behind this story is China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law. This compels Chinese companies to support state intelligence gathering and to operate in such a way as to support the state’s intelligence aspirations. As I commented back in 2000, TikTok’s real issue isn’t data collection, it’s data dissemination. With tens of millions of U.S. citizens turning to the app for news, its algorithm is one of the most powerful influencers of public opinion operating in the U.S. today.
Again, you can do the math as to how such reach may appeal as the administration changes, especially given TikTok’s ability to push agendas and uncannily appeal to the more extreme side of people’s likes and dislikes, and escalate the news cycle.
So, do you believe in magic? If so, watch this space. Because this story still looks like it will run and run. And my bet is that Beijing is quite happy that the U.S. is focusing public attention on TikTok instead of its more critical enterprises.
Trump’s real foe during his last term was Huawei. And headlines around China’s leading tech champion are being tempered by TikTok, evan as its U.S. future is arguably even more perilous than its Chinese stablemate. Nothing is by accident when it comes to China’s tech sector and its complex interplay with the west.
All that said, if you have any favorite videos on TikTok that you don’t want to lose—then now would be a good time tap “Share” and then “Save Video.”
