Category 5 hurricanes are somewhat of an anomaly relatively speaking in any hurricane season. However, a Category 5 hurricane on before the 4th of July is unprecedented. University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy posted, “#Beryl holds the new record for earliest Category 5 hurricane by a huge 15-day margin now.” This storm continues to break records, ravage the Caribbean region, and stun scientists like me. Here’s what we can expect from the hurricane as it continues to move westward. The bottom-line up front – It’s not good, especially for Jamaica.
I am particularly concerned about the island of Jamaica, and Weather Channel senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman explains why in his post on X. His term “Septuly” is appropriate because what we are observing with Beryl is more likely in September than July. Hurricane Beryl would be the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Dean (2007). According to Erdman, sixteen major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have struck Jamaica. Every single one of them was after the month of August.
Here’s the latest information from the National Hurricane Center. Their Tuesday morning discussion warns, “Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday.” Tropical Storm Warning are also up for the southern coast of Hispaniola, and the Cayman Islands are under a Hurricane Watch. My meteorological dissection of the discussion reveals additional things to be concerned about.
NHC points out that Beryl is an “impressive category 5 hurricane” and has one of the most textbook eyes, outflow structure, and banding features that I have seen in any hurricane. NHC also remarks, “A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days…. latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid.”
That last statement is why I am so worried about Jamaica. It could take a direct hit or be within the “dirty” side of the eyewall where the strongest winds and storm surge are located. Many people vacation in Jamaica at this time of year and may not be familiar with this type of strong hurricane. To be clear, even experienced residents are not. This is an extreme event for which there is no reference point this early in July. Period. Hurricane “amnesia” and “decision-making” based on outdated mental benchmarks of previous storms are always a concern for me.
What about the U.S.? NOAA’s hurricane experts say, “There is still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.” This means that anyone from Mexico to the western U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the storm. Once Beryl passes Jamaica, we will need to see how the island terrain, increasing wind shear, and dry air affects its intensity.
Ironically, the fate of the oppressive heat dome in the U.S. could impact the track of the storm. Erdman also points at that if the dome weakens, it could provide a “meteorologically” pathway to impact the U.S. However, I want to strongly emphasize that track and intensity forecast uncertainty is rather high beyond four to five days so we will need to keep watching.
