The US economy wasn’t as hot as it seemed between early this year and early 2023, according to revised figures released by the feds.
The nation’s labor market likely created 818,000 fewer jobs during the 12 months ended in March — the largest preliminary downward revision to US payroll figures since 2009, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.
That means that the reported job growth during that period — 2.9 million non-farm payroll positions amounting to 242,000 jobs per month — was likely around 30% less, or 174,000 jobs per month, according to new data gathered from state unemployment tax records.
The massive markdown — short of the 1 million downward revision some economists had feared, but well beyond more optimistic forecasts of 300,000 — fuels concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to start cutting interest rates.
“This doesn’t challenge the idea we’re still in an expansion, but it does signal we should expect monthly job growth to be more muted and put extra pressure on the Fed to cut rates,” Robert Frick, corporate economist with the Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a note.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give more hints about the central bank’s rate cut plans on Friday in a hotly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Investors are currently pricing in a quarter-point cut when the Fed meets in September. Traders currently see a 20% chance of a half-point rate cut.
Jobs numbers have become a political football as the 2024 presidential race enters its final months.
Former President Donald Trump reacted to the downward revision on his Truth Social account on Wednesday, calling it a “massive scandal.”
“The Harris-Biden administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating Job Statistics to hide the true extent of the Economic Ruin they have inflicted upon America,” Trump wrote, insisting that the actual job growth numbers “are much worse than” what the BLS was reporting.
Earlier this month, a weak July jobs report ignited concerns that the nation’s labor market isn’t as healthy as economists thought. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, has risen four months straight.
Wednesday’s report is part of a yearly process in which the Labor Department updates its monthly employer surveys using more comprehensive data from state unemployment tax records. The update is only preliminating and subject to a final revision in February.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, who had anticipated that the downward revision may reach up to 1 million fewer jobs, also noted that numbers have ended up revised upward in February during the past four years. Wells Fargo predicted that the report would show at least 600,000 fewer jobs.
The largest downward revision was in the professional and business services, where 358,000 fewer positions were created. In leisure and hospitality, the number of jobs created was 150,000 less than previously reported while manufacturing positions were revised downward by 115,000.
In trade, transportation and utilities, there was a downward revision of 104,000 positions.
Several sectors saw upward revision, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400) and other services (21,000).
The BLS revises its initial job estimates which normally rely on incomplete data and survey findings from a sample of businesses and households.
Benchmark revisions are often made after officials pore over administrative documents such as unemployment insurance tax records, which often reveal discrepancies.
The Fed has kept interest rates high in hopes of bringing down inflation without tipping the economy into a recession — also known as a “soft landing.”
