All change for Microsoft users this week, with the surprising news that Windows 10 won’t be going quite as end-of-life as expected in October next year. You can have another year of security updates for which you will need to pay $30. But then in October 2026, the end-of-life cliff edge comes back again—no, really this time.
If that’s good news for home users—business users and schools already had extended support options, it could be very bad news for PC manufacturers. Less than two weeks ago, the third-quarter global PC sales numbers were lower than hoped, but as Canalys reported, the need for strong growth in 2025 should be boosted “as a large proportion of the Windows PC installed base still needs to be refreshed before the end of life of Windows 10 in October 2025.” Erm, not any more.
While Canalys pegged third-quarter growth at just 1.3%, IDC reported “worldwide shipments of traditional PCs dipped 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) to 68.8 million units, during the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24).”
Gartner saw the same decline, reporting a slightly lower 1.3% dip. “The demand for the Windows PC refresh driven by the end of Windows 10 support in 2025 did not fully pick up during the third quarter, partly due to economic challenges in certain regions,” albeit it still forecasts “more robust growth in 2025.”
You get the point. A softer than expected 2024 has led manufacturers to peg their hopes on a “last minute” rush to stores to get a new machine up and running before the October 2025 deadline—which just became October 2026. Add that to Microsoft’s huge push to encourage users into new AI-enabled PCs, and you have an industry gearing up for an event that has just been canceled—or postponed, at least.
Microsoft isn’t wrong when it says you’re more secure with a new PC running Windows 11 than an older device running an older OS. While users might feel ties to the familiar and highly successful Windows 10 look and feel, the reality is that month after month, Microsoft patches serious security flaws. And the older the OS and the less secure their hardware, the more likely those are to bite.
As Microsoft’s Yusuf Mehdi posted on Thursday, “advanced [Windows 11] security features include hardware-based protection through TPM 2.0, enhanced authentication methods and virtualization-based security fully enabled by default. Windows 11 also includes phishing protection, offering robust defense mechanisms, and provides an extra layer of security against common and persistent cyberattacks, like attempts to compromise login credentials or install malware.”
Nothing is ever certain, but the basic principles of supply and demand and the imperative for a recovery from a soft 2024, allied to materially lower than expected demand given the extended support options, means 2025 could be a year of exciting PC deals in the marketplace. We will know soon enough—and we could see some movement as the market reacts before the end of 2024.
And so, whether it’s to grab a deal or to bolster the security of your home setup, it does look like 2025 could be the year to buy a new Windows PC.
