President Trump’s 2025 tariffs on imports of cars, light trucks, aluminum and steel are constricting the U.S. automotive industry.
Through the first six months of 2026, passenger vehicle imports are down 21.08%, when compared to totals for the same period in 2024, before the tariffs, according to my latest analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. U.S. exports are off a nearly identical 21.90%.
Overall U.S. imports with the world are up 11.38% in that same time period while U.S. exports are up 20.53%.
Passenger vehicle imports were the single most-valuable import for six of the seven years between 2018 and 2024, when viewing the same first six months of the year.
Today, the category ranks third. Among the top 10 U.S. imports this year, the loss of $22.69 billion from the first six months of 2024 is three times the decline in the value of No. 4 oil and six times the decline in the value of No. 10 motor vehicle parts.
Passenger vehicle exports, meanwhile, ranked fourth among all U.S. exports through June of 2024, one year before Trump entered office and imposed the steep tariffs. Today, the category ranks No. 12. The 11 exports ahead of passenger vehicles have all increased in that time period.
Trump’s tariffs are part of his effort to reduce the U.S. merchandise trade deficit, which has increased four consecutive months this year after setting a record last year and seven of the last nine.
Getting more granular, by imposing tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, the administration made cars and trucks that underwent final assembly in the United States more expensive to produce, not just imports.
The effects of tariffs – as well as higher gasoline prices associated with the conflict involving Iran – are therefore showing up not only in international trade but also in domestic vehicle purchasing.
The headline in The Wall Street Journal earlier this year read, “One Million New-Car Buyers Are Gone and They’re Not Coming Back Soon.” The reference was to U.S. auto sales being projected to top out at about 16 million units this year down from 17 million a year in 2020.
Part of the reason is the sticker price. The average price for a new car is hovering around $50,000.
That leads to more people holding on to their vehicles longer. The average age for passenger cars is14.5 years, while the average of light trucks is 11.9 years.
On the U.S. export side, the ports most affected have been the Port of Brunswick, Ga., which sends a majority of its vehicles to Germany and China, the Port Huron Blue Water Bridge, with almost all of its exports to Canada, and the Buffalo Peace Bridge in New York, also dominated by Canada.
At the Port of Brunswick, exports of passenger vehicles are down 41.80%, which is equal to $2.36 billion. The sting at the Georgia seaport is real. Of the value of all exports from there, 80.53% are passenger vehicles.
At Port Huron, the statistics are a decline of 71.74% and $1.151 billion.
At Buffalo, the numbers are a decline of 93.55% and $1.03 billion.
It should come as no surprise that the country whose U.S. passenger vehicle imports have fallen the most over the last two years is Canada, which has seen a 34.14% decline, equal to $3.12 billion.
Declines to China and the United Arab Emirates have topped more than $1 billion each in the first six months of this year, when compared to the same time period in 2024.
On the import side, the ports taking the biggest hit have been the Port of Brunswick and the Port of Hueneme in California.
Brunswick, ranked No. 1 in the first six months of 2024, has fallen to No. 3, with imports down $2.90 billion, equal to 27.63%. On the import side, 77.27% of the value of all inbound shipments are passenger vehicles. This year, one third of those vehicles are coming from South Korea and another quarter from Germany and Japan.
Hueneme, which has only slipped one notch in the rankings to No. 5, has seen the value of its imports fall $2.33 billion, which is equal to a 30.71% decline.
The biggest decreases by importing countries are with Mexico ($4.54 billion, 19.31%), South Korea ($4.36 billion, 21.80%), Canada ($3.65 billion, 24.19%), and Germany ($3.10 billion, 25.75%).
The statistics do not suggest that the tariffs have simply redirected passenger-vehicle trade to different ports or different countries. They point instead to a broader contraction in imports and exports of a category that was, until recently, among the nation’s most valuable.
That matters because the U.S. automotive industry is not solely an import industry or an export industry. It is a deeply integrated North American industry, dependent on components, vehicles and investment moving back and forth across borders. Tariffs on imported vehicles, aluminum and steel may change the terms of that trade, but they also raise costs for U.S.-based manufacturers and for the consumers to whom they hope to sell.
The irony is that an effort intended to strengthen American manufacturing may be making it more difficult for the U.S. auto industry to compete at home and abroad.