This is the first of our articles on the 2026 Future of Memory and Storage (FMS) Conference. This article will give some observations on the general market for storage and memory technologies based upon FMS and other recent information. Of course, AI has been driving demand for all types of storage and memory technologies and this has resulted in shortages for these critical computing components and thus higher prices.
We will consider the market for DRAM first, the general working memory for computing applications. DRAM is used in various DDR configurations as well as in high-performance high bandwidth memory, HBM, packages, popular in various domain specific memory applications, such as in GPUs. We will look at market presentations by various analysts.
We will start with some observations from Avril Wu from Trendforce. Avril pointed out that AI and Server DRAM consumption is no longer limited to just HBM and DDR5 but that it has expanded to include LPDDR and graphics DRAM. Trendforce projects overall server DRAM and HBM cumulative annual bit growth rates, CAGRs, of 37.4% through 2028 with server DRAM supplying 48% of the bit demand in 2028, followed by HBM at 14% and other DRAM at 38%.
Trendforce said that as generative AI and agentic workloads continue to scale, HBM shipments forcasts in 2025 saw repeated upward revisions with no sign of demand fatigue. They said that order negotiations for 2027 are underway and that shipment growth is expected to be sustained at about 60% YoY. They expect some moderation in demand in 2028, but that next generation HBM adoption and advanced packaging technology would provide about 42.9% growth in 2028.
The figure below shows the Trendforce summary of in-house chip projects through 2027 by some of the major US hyperscale data center companies.
Trendforce projected that NAND supply share for server related applications, versus mobile ones such as smart phones, is increasing with overall server related CABR bit growth of 47.5% through 2028 for server related SSD total demand and comprising about 49% of the total by 2028. They also noted that the major companies making DRAM and NAND flash are focusing on expanding their high margin DRAM product production, such as HBM, versus NAND flash production, which will extend the shortage of NAND-based storage.
Trendforce projected that supply and demand for DRAM will remain unbalanced until 2028 when there would be 2% more supply than demand for DRAM and 4% higher supply than demand for NAND flash.
Yole’s Wen Liu continuing growth in NAND bit shipments out to 2031 with a 2025-3031 CAGR of 17% and maximum NAND $/GB pricing in 2027 with declines in pricing from the end of 2028, although higher in 2031 than they were in 2025. Data center demand was the primary driver of bit growth from 2025 to 2031 with a CAGR of 29%. They projected significant growth in QLC versus TLC flash for client PCs and removable storage with much slower growth for enterprise SSDs and mobile. Like Trendforce and many of the FMS keynotes, Yole thinks that NAND products for the data center are undergoing some customization as more NAND based storage/memory tiers are used.
Simone Bertolazzi, also from Yole, focused on DRAM. He forecasted 2026 overall DRAM revenue to have increased by 227% over 2025 with a 175% increase in $/GB average sales price. He projected that the HBM market revenue would grow 70% in 2026 from 2025 with an 11% increase in the $/GB prices. SK hynix shipped 59% of all HBM revenue in 2025. The majority of HBM shipments (61%) are projected as going to Nvidia in 2026 and 2027.
Jung Yoon, from IBM talked about the AI Infrastructure Super Cycle. He said that over $500B will be invested in 2026 building AI-optimized data centers to support current and future AI applications. He pointed to projections that this investment could reach $7T by 2030. He pointed out that HBM requires 3-4X more wafers as compared to standard DDR due to the larger size dies used and TSV stacking yields, but that suppliers have 5-10X higher profit margins for HBM versus standard DDR5, hence the priority to make HBM.
He shared these two charts showing DDR5 server DRAM as well as enterprise NAND/SSD trends and forecasts. I note that Enterprise NAND/SSD has increase by almost 4X since the last quarter of 2025. The latest Vdura Flash Volatility Index shows that spot prices for enterprise SSDs is about 6.5X higher than year ago levels, making a 30TB QLC SSD about 16.4X higher priced than a 30TB nearline HDD.
Jeff Janukowicz from IDC also talked about how long the current super cycle could last. He pointed out that capex spending by some of the large American hyperscale data center companies has been increasing and will likely be more than the GDP of Sweden in 2026 as shown below. Of course, this investment is even higher if non-US companies are included.
He also pointed out that data center capex projections have been increasing over time with the AI buildout and that enterprise infrastructure spending is expected to have a 24% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. The increasing prices and focus on enterprise storage has had a negative effect on consumer and OEM storage, with PCs and phones being shipped with less memory and storage than in the past or with much higher prices.
The 2026 FMS Conference highlighted the impact that AI is having on the price of common memory and storage technologies. The current memory and storage supercycle looks like it could continue into 2028 and perhaps further.