Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh soared ahead of National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on prediction markets betting on the next Fed chair after President Trump on Friday hinted that Hassett might be out of the running.
Trump did not reveal his final choice to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, but said he would like to keep Hassett in his current role.
“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” the president said during remarks at the White House on Friday.
“I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
The odds of Warsh clinching the nomination jumped to 59% on Polymarket, while traders placed just a 15% chance that Hassett would land the job – following weeks in which markets placed better odds on Hassett.
Even current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been considered a long shot, beat out the odds of a Hassett nomination with 15.6% on Polymarket. Traders also saw less than a 10% chance that BlackRock exec Rick Rieder could win the role.
Warsh also jumped to 59% odds on Kalshi, another prediction market. Hassett and Waller got 16% and 15% odds, respectively.
Trump has not set a specific date to name his pick for the next chairman. Powell’s term at the helm expires in May, though he could choose to stay on the board through 2028. He has so far declined to comment on whether he will remain a Fed governor.
On Sunday, Powell publicly shared that he’s under criminal investigation for allegedly lying during congressional testimony last summer — a stunning development that came after years of Trump blasting the chair for failing to lower interest rates quickly enough.
For weeks, the president has signaled he is looking at either Warsh or Hassett to replace Powell, adding that he has ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “because he wants to stay where he is.”
Rieder and Waller have also been interviewed for the role.
While Trump said he’d like to keep Hassett in his current job, it’s not impossible for him to win the nomination.
After Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned last summer, Trump tapped Stephen Miran, then a top White House economic adviser. Miran refused to fully resign from his White House role, instead taking an unpaid leave of absence.
Addressing White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles on Friday, Trump said, “We don’t want to lose him [Hassett], Susie, but we’ll see how it all works out.”
