There’s a new essay on AI online, in the form of an open letter, and it’s only 88 words long. But a lot more length is devoted to the signatories of this missive, who are cautioning the rest of us to think deeply about the advances that we see in artificial intelligence.
The letter, called “We Must Act Now,” is signed by dozens of prominent people. At a glance, I recognized some of those who have participated in talks and panels here at MIT events: Reid Hoffman, for one, and Erik Brynjolfsson, and Yoshua Bengio. That list goes on and on. I know a few dozen of these signatories, and am familiar with the names of many more.
So I wanted to break this down into its component parts. The short letter consists of three numbered statements. The first is this:
“AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years.”
That statement sort of speaks for itself. Many would agree that this is a likelihood.
The next piece?
“This could drive an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame. It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards.”
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, and More
Some are now calling the age of AI the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” This proceeds from the idea that the First Industrial Revolution was the introduction of mass manufacturing, steam-driven machines, etc. and the Second Industrial Revolution followed, with things like telegraph lines, railroad networks, and public water and sewer lines. The third such revolution is described as the “information age,” starting with the personal computer and the internet.
The fourth revolution, then, is built around AI, the Internet of Things, and all of today’s accomplishments.
Look at the above text from the letter. One thing that signatories are worried about is the short time frame in which all of this is taking place. Job displacement is a concern, for the stability of our society. After all, the first two industrial revolutions predated the Great Depression of the early twentieth century, and it took a world war to fix the American economy.
Point #3: The Action
The third part of the letter states:
“Economists, policymakers and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society.”
This broad appeal to leadership makes sense, in an environment where the common person finds it hard to imagine creating the required kind of change themselves. Guardrails are important and necessary. So many of us would agree on that. The question is, what should they look like? And what will they look like?
This article from Fast Company talks about the deep and abiding hate that many Americans have for AI, as a threat, on an instinctive level. In some ways, “no one wants it,” and it’s the central wealth holders, the billionaires, who are trying to foist AI on the public. But the big picture is more complex than that.
“Americans are terrified of AI,” writes Thomas Smith. “They worry that the tech will take their jobs, render their kids’ lives meaningless, steal their personal information, and ultimately destroy American culture. A recent Pew study finds that most Americans think AI will be bad for society, with 63% feeling that the tech is moving too fast. Almost three-quarters of Americans think AI will make their data less secure. And most (71%) feel that governments will fail to regulate the tech.”
That lack of regulation is a big deal, too. That’s basically what these letter writers are asking for: that we use common-sense regulation to steer the results of the AI revolution to something that helps humanity to thrive.
I was also watching this video with Jan Philipp Burgard, editor-in-chief of Welt, interviewing Sam Altman, where Altman seemed to say something similar, but different: that we should isolate the special skills of humans and celebrate them in the AI age.
It’s hopeful when tech leaders like Altman or the Amodeis evince principles like this, but we’re going to need more if we really want to blunt the challenge that AI brings to humans, in a competitive sense. We’re going to need some kind of new bill of rights.
Send me a comment and let me know what you think.
