We have just passed the one-year anniversary of the monumental deal that sent Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants. The trade shocked the industry for various reasons, including the speed and timing.
With the trade, the Giants finally acquired the big fish that they had been trying to land via free agency for years. After striking out on Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani, and others, they agreed to take on the $250 million-plus left on Devers’ original 10-year, $313.5 million contract to have a big bat play third base, first base, and serve as their designated hitter.
In return for the mercurial left-handed slugger, the Giants sent left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison, right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, outfield prospect James Tibbs III, and pitching prospect Jose Bello back to Boston. Just one year later, only Bello remains in the Red Sox organization.
Over the off-season Boston traded Harrison (as well as left-handed pitcher Shane Drohan and utility infielder David Hamilton) to the Milwaukee Brewers in return for infielders Caleb Durbin, Anthony Siegler, Andruw Monasterio, and a competitive balance draft pick. The idea was that Durbin would fill the hole left by the loss of Devers (to San Francisco) and Alex Bregman (who the team could not re-sign as a free agent). So far, it has been a disaster for Boston, with Durbin slashing .215/.269/.361, with a 77 OPS+ (meaning he is 23% worse than an average big leaguer).
Shortly after the deal with the Giants, Boston shipped Tibbs III to Los Angeles for right-handed pitcher Dustin May. May pitched poorly for the Red Sox, going 1-4, with a 5.40 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 1.69 WHIP. Accordingly, they did not offer him a contract at the end of the season. May signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, and he has rewarded their faith by giving the Cards quality innings and nearly throwing a no-hitter last week.
In fairness, the Red Sox did not have any room for Tibbs III in their already overcrowded outfield. But, to end up with nothing for MLB’s #24 prospect (according to Keith Law of The Athletic) still has to hurt.
Hicks was actually worse in Boston than May, so they team dumped him and his salary to the Chicago White Sox before spring training, sending the righty along with pitching prospect David Sandlin and $8 million (to cover part of the $25 million he is still owed) to the South Side in return for pitching prospect Gage Ziehl. He is currently in Double-A as Boston’s 20th best prospect.
Jose Bello, the lone survivor, is stuck in Single-A, where he has thrown 29 innings this year.
Kyle Harrison could have been the cornerstone of the deal, but, alas, that was not meant to be. With the Red Sox needing a third baseman for various reasons, including their failure to break precedent and give Bregman a no-trade clause and to offer him just a few more bucks, they sent Harrison to the Midwest. The pitcher has had a breakout season in Milwaukee – 8-1, 2.50 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, nearly a 5/1 strikeout to walk ratio – and is in the running for the Cy Young Award.
That said, it still could have worked out for the Red Sox if Durbin had lived up to the hype. The diminutive infielder came in third in Rookie of the Year voting last season when he put up 2.7 bWAR. This year, either due to a sophomore slump, or performing in a massive media market, or just getting comfortable in a new environment, he simply has not played up to par (again, he is about 23% below par).
All of this leaves the Red Sox in a very weird spot. After trading one third baseman, failing to sign another, and then trading for a hot prospect, they may actually be in the market for a third baseman at the trade deadline. And the player they may target plays in San Francisco. No, it would not be a reunion with Devers, which would be all kinds of awkward. But Matt Chapman is there for the taking. ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Giants are open to moving Willy Adames, Devers, and/or Chapman.
Chapman is the right-handed bat that Boston needs. He is currently in the second season of a six-year, $151 million contract, meaning there will still be about $112 million due by the time the trade deadline hits. Ostensibly, the Giants would have to eat some of that to make the trade. But, even assuming they don’t, the Red Sox will still be better off financially and on the field.
Chapman is a ten-year veteran with five Gold Gloves on his shelf who pulls the ball in the air more than 62% of the time (league average is under 56%). His swing would play at Fenway Park. Boston took more than $250 million off the books when they moved Devers, and would be on the hook for – at most – just over $100 million in taking on Chapman’s contract. Devers is San Francisco’s problem (unless he, too, is moved, which seems unlikely) through 2033. Chapman’s contract will expire after 2030.
Any move by Boston for a Giants third baseman would be rich with irony. However, pride should not stop Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow from working to improve a Red Sox team that is going nowhere, and getting there quickly. Fixing third base could be just the start they need.
