The AFC Conference Championship has a pair of intriguing rushing props. The NFC Championship has two alluring receiving props. Another fun betting market for the NFL Conference Championship Round is anytime touchdown bets. Obviously, football games produce fewer touchdowns than passing, rushing and receiving yards, as well as most other statistical categories offered to bet on.
Betting on anytime touchdowns is a little trickier balancing act than betting on other player props, as it requires more careful consideration for the likelihood of a player scoring a touchdown and the odds offered for them to do so. Simply betting the most likely player to score a touchdown isn’t always optimal because sportsbooks provide those players with short, or chalky, odds to reach paydirt. Conversely, the players with the longest odds to score a touchdown are priced accordingly, and chasing their long odds is also a recipe for losing in the long term. The two following anytime touchdown picks weigh the likelihood of the players scoring a touchdown against the odds offered, and they offer bettors the most bang for their buck.
NFL Conference Championship Round Anytime Touchdown Picks
Hunter Henry (New England Patriots – TE)
Anytime Touchdown (+188) at BetMGM
Hunter Henry has a nose for the end zone. The veteran’s seven receiving touchdowns in 17 games paced the Patriots in the regular season, and he’s one of four players on the team to score a receiving touchdown in the playoffs.
Henry’s 16 targets inside the 15-yard line in the regular season were also the most on the club. He turned his 16 targets in that area of the field into nine receptions and four touchdowns, which tied Stefon Diggs’ four receiving touchdowns inside the 15-yard line for the most on the Patriots.
Additionally, the Patriots had a slight preference for passing in scoring territory. They have a 54.1% pass rate inside the 20-yard line and a 51.5% pass rate inside the 10-yard line this year.
Henry is also on a touchdown heater. He has splashed paydirt in three of his last four games.
The Broncos haven’t been the easiest team for tight ends to score touchdowns against. They also haven’t been perfect against them, allowing seven different tight ends to combine for seven touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid scored a touchdown against the Broncos last week, and Denver has allowed a touchdown to tight ends in three of their previous six games. Henry’s +188 odds for an anytime touchdown are reasonable and worth making a small wager on.
Colby Parkinson (Los Angeles Rams – TE)
Anytime Touchdown (+310) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Seahawks were even more difficult for tight ends to score against than the Broncos, permitting a total of six touchdowns spread out among six different tight ends. Interestingly, Colby Parkinson scored one of those touchdowns, doing so in Week 11. Perhaps equally interesting, teammate and fellow tight end Terrance Ferguson also scored a touchdown against the Seahawks in Week 16. Los Angeles’s tight ends’ success in finding paydirt against Seattle could come into play again this week.
Parkinson’s touchdown against the Seahawks wasn’t an outlier this year, either. Instead, the big-bodied tight end’s eight receiving touchdowns in the regular season were the third most on the team, and he’s one of three Rams to score a receiving touchdown in the playoffs, memorably hauling in the team’s game-winning touchdown against the Panthers in the Wild Card Round.
Parkinson’s 12 targets inside the 15-yard line in the regular season were the second-most on the Rams, trailing only Davante Adams’ 26. Parkinson also has six end-zone targets this year, scoring a touchdown on three of them. Matthew Stafford trusts Parkinson, and the 27-year-old tight end’s size is tailor-made for scoring touchdowns in the congested red zone. As a result, Parkinson’s anytime touchdown at +310 odds is a desirable bet in the NFL Conference Championship Round.