Conor McGregor has not had his hand raised in victory since he defeated an overmatched and afraid Donald Cerrone at UFC 246 in January 2020. On Saturday, the former two-division UFC champion looks to get back in the win column against a man he defeated by decision in August 2013 on the prelims of a UFC on FS1 card, ex-UFC featherweight titleholder Max Holloway. The McGregor vs. Holloway rematch serves as the main event for UFC 329, which takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. We look at the McGregor vs. Holloway 2 matchup and offer picks and predictions for the welterweight scrap.
UFC 329 Main Event Betting Odds And Line Movement
The current line finds Conor McGregor as the +183 betting underdog to the -213 favorite, Max Holloway. That is a far cry from the opening odds, which found Holloway as a massive -550 betting favorite over the +420 McGregor. For those looking to lay a bet on Holloway, I would suggest holding off until the last minute because the chances are good that more money will continue to come in on McGregor to win.
UFC 329: Conor McGregor’s Return
This is not the first time UFC CEO Dana White has announced a McGregor return to the cage. In April 2024, the UFC booked McGregor vs. Michael Chandler for the main event of UFC 303. A month later, White was happy with ticket sales for the event, saying UFC 303, which was booked for June 29, 2024 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, would be the first UFC card to have a live gate of $20 million or more.
Things fell apart in mid-June when McGregor withdrew from UFC 303 because of a broken toe. The card, which was headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between then-champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, drew a live gate of $15,909,243.
UFC 306 became the first card to top the $20 million live gate number. That event, at Sphere in Las Vegas drew $21,829,245 on an attendance of 16,024.
The 37-year-old McGregor (22-6) is 1-3 since October 2018. His most recent win was a January 2020 TKO victory over Donald Cerrone. He is coming off back-to-back TKO losses to Dustin Poirier. McGregor’s most recent fight, his July 2021 loss to Poirier, came after a broken leg left McGregor unable to continue.
Also, since his last outing, McGregor was found liable for sexual assault in a civil case.
Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor’s last UFC outing, he is 5-3 in those bouts. Losing title fights to Charles Oliveira (symbolic BMF belt), Ilia Topuria (featherweight), and Alex Volkanovski (featherweight). The 34-year-old’s wins came against Yair Rodriguez, Arnold Allen, Korean Zombie, Justin Gaethje (for the BMF title), and Dustin Poirier (defense of the BMF title).
McGregor and Holloway first met at 145 pounds in August 2013. McGregor won that contest via decision.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Picks and Predictions
The first thing bettors want to do is forget about the 2013 meeting between these two. That was a featherweight fight and both men were in the early stages of their UFC careers. To show how different McGregor was, he had four takedowns in that contest. McGregor has not landed a single takedown in his past 11 fights. His most recent successful takedown came one bout after the first Holloway scrap when he took Diego Brandao to the mat. As for Holloway, McGregor outstruck him in that contest, something that didn’t happen again until Alexander Volkanovski landed 157 blows to Holloway’s 134 in December 2019. Holloway fought 15 times between those two bouts.
Further, this fight is at 170 pounds, while the first fight was at 145. The McGregor of 2013 is slower and bulkier than the McGregor of 2026, and his already suspect gas tank won’t be helped by the time off and the volume of strikes that will be coming his way from the always throwing Holloway. who averages 6.91 strikes landed per minute, while throwing an average of close to 15 significant strikes per minute.
McGregor has a puncher’s chance to win this fight, but if it leaves the first round, that chance decreases exponentially, especially since Holloway will not stop moving forward and throwing strikes at an opponent who will only get slower, less defensively sound and more desperate as the fight wears on.
Holloway, even a Holloway who is nearing the end of his career with a somewhat suspect chin and ability to absorb heavy blows, wins this fight more times than not. The pick is for Holloway to piece up McGregor with volume, and get a knockout after the halfway point of the contest.
We will have more on UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 as fight night nears.
