A discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is set to collide with the moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, in an unplanned impact that’s expected to create a fresh crater and send a towering plume of debris into space.
The collision itself will occur on the moon’s sunlit surface and won’t be visible from Earth even in large telescopes, but the resulting dust cloud may be, according to new research published this week by researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and NASA Ames Research Center.
If so, it’s a very rare opportunity to witness the aftermath of an object striking the moon, though it also highlights the dangers of space junk as NASA prepares to build a moonbase.
SpaceX Rocket To Strike Near Einstein Crater
The 45 ft. (13.8-meter) upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket — SpaceX’s workhorse reusable rocket that has launched almost 700 times — was launched into space on Jan. 15, 2025, from Launch Complex 39A at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. It carried the Firefly Blue Ghost Mission 1 and the ispace RESILIENCE mission into space. It’s been drifting in space ever since, but was not intended to strike the moon.
The 8,800 lb (4,000 kg) object, cataloged as 2025-010D, is predicted to hit the lunar surface at 06:35 UTC on Aug. 5, at approximately 5,400mph (8,700km/h) near Einstein Crater on the moon’s western limb. It could cause a crater roughly 89 feet (27 meters) across and 16 feet (5 meters) deep.
Space Junk: A Future Threat?
Space debris in orbit is on the rise, with about 35,000 objects now tracked by space surveillance networks, according to the European Space Agency. 2025-010D may pose no danger to humanity for now, but impacts on the moon could be massively consequential in the future if NASA and the China National Space Administration make good on plans for a permanent human presence on the lunar surface.
Debris Plume May Be Visible From Earth
According to researchers, the impact flash could be as bright as magnitude +3, or so faint that even large telescopes won’t detect it. Either way, the flash is unlikely to be visible because the crash site is fully illuminated by sunlight and will likely last less than a second, so attention has shifted to the much larger debris plume expected to rise above the moon’s horizon.
Modeling suggests that the impact is expected to excavate around 2.65 million pounds (1.2 million kilograms) of lunar regolith — roughly 150-200 times the rocket’s own mass. It could be visible for about 10 minutes, silhouetted against the darkness of space beyond the moon’s bright limb.
The eastern half of North America and much of South America will have the best viewing conditions. Both professional and amateur astronomers are being encouraged to attempt observations using high frame rate cameras.
Scientists Hope To Learn More About Lunar Impacts
Beyond providing a spectacle for some skywatchers, the collision offers researchers a valuable scientific experiment. “Given the renewed interest in lunar exploration, the impact of artificial bodies on the moon is almost certain to become more frequent,” reads the paper. “To avoid uncontrolled increases in the amount of space debris in lunar orbit (as is the case now in low Earth orbit), advancing monitoring of cislunar space from ground- and space-based facilities will be key.”
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are both in a position to image before and after the impact.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.