Despite a U.S. blockade and weeks of negotiations, Iran is still demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Russia and China are eagerly watching. Before the U.S. blockade began, Iran was giving Russian and Chinese ships preferential access through the Strait even as it charged two million dollars in tolls to some ships and blocked others out entirely. To protect their own interests, Russia and China in April vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to reopen the Strait. But the veto was not just about Hormuz: Moscow and Beijing have a bigger prize in mind 5,000 miles to the north. Giving Iran sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz would open the door for Russia to forcibly assert sovereignty over the most important maritime waterway you’ve probably never heard of: the Northern Sea Route. Allowing Russia to control the NSR would threaten U.S. national security interests, global commerce, and freedom of navigation worldwide.
The NSR runs through the Arctic, connecting the Bering Strait in the east to the Barents Sea in the west. It remains impassable for most of the year, but melting ice is making it increasingly navigable to connect Asian goods and European markets. Shippers are eyeing the NSR as an alternative to the dangerous Suez Canal route. The journey is approximately 5,600 kilometers shorter and can save 10 to 15 days. The NSR is shallower than the Suez, which means that not all large cargo ships can use it. However, it could provide a new home for the subsea cables that carry much of modern digital commerce. These cables can be laid seasonally and by smaller ships, making the NSR important for economic development.
How Russia Controls Access to the Northern Sea Route Through the Arctic
Russia is asserting control over the NSR using lawfare: purposefully misusing law to achieve strategic or military gains. Moscow applies an unlawful interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to claim much of the NSR as its internal, sovereign waters. Russia has enshrined these claims in its domestic law, setting the legal stage for it to deem any unauthorized foreign passage illegal.
Much like Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, Russia is already imposing illegal tolls and other restrictions on ships transiting the NSR. Ships passing through the waterway must pay Russian tariffs and comply with stringent pollution rules and harsh insurance requirements. Russia is also compelling private foreign vessels in the NSR to use Russian ice pilots and icebreaker escorts. Russia thus effectively determines which ships use the NSR. Russia’s 2022 Warship Law also requires 90 days’ advance notice for foreign warships to transit the passage, limits the route to one warship at a time, and requires submarines to surface. This law explicitly violates UNCLOS. The Warship Law also means that any warship sailing through the NSR without Russia’s permission would violate Russian domestic law. Any foreign warship transit of the NSR thus risks kinetic conflict with Russia.
How China Supports Russia’s Unlawful Russian Claims to the Northern Sea Route Through the Arctic
China is supporting Russia’s unlawful maritime claims. Beijing and Moscow are increasingly acting together to expand their military presence in the Arctic. A Chinese icebreaker successfully transited the NSR in September 2024. In 2025, Russia announced that it is training Chinese mariners to operate in polar conditions, and Moscow and Beijing agreed to cooperate on a Polar Silk Road project. Beyond a show of military cooperation against the United States, China’s payoff for supporting Russia’s NSR claims is priority access to the route and the sanctioned oil and liquefied natural gas that it carries.
China’s support for Russia’s strategic aims in the Arctic is likely to continue. Beijing needs the NSR to evade sanctions and to promote its energy security. In return, it is providing Moscow diplomatic cover, economic investment in the NSR’s infrastructure, and increasing military support. Given the potential for subsea cables to be laid in the NSR, Russian control of the waterway also supports both China’s and Russia’s desire for cyber sovereignty—which threatens a free and open internet.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters For Russia’s Control of the Northern Sea Route Through the Arctic
Granting Iran sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz would embolden Russia in the Arctic. Iran accomplished in months what Russia has been trying to do in the NSR for years. Iran has declared control over the Strait, determined what ships pass through, imposed stringent tariffs and regulations, and allowed preferential access to partner states. Thanks to Iran’s example, Russia knows it will have a powerful negotiating chip with the United States and Europe if it flexes its military muscles to enforce sovereignty over the NSR. Russia’s veto power in the Security Council, combined with China’s, ensures that the Council will never authorize the use of force to stop its Arctic ambition.
The United States should continue its efforts to promote freedom of navigation worldwide by protesting Russia’s sovereignty claim over the NSR. Washington has diplomatically protested Moscow’s claim since 1963, a necessary step to ensure that Russia’s claims do not crystallize under international law. Increasing diplomatic efforts and coordinating them with NATO allies would apply greater pressure on Russia. The United States could also push for international navigation standards through the International Maritime Organization in order to prevent Russia’s domestic regulations from becoming de facto global rules. Such coordination must occur before the route’s increasing commercial value creates competing incentives. U.S. preparations to conduct a freedom of navigation operation through the NSR would further pressure Moscow and signal that the United States is serious about keeping Arctic waters free and open.
The world is watching the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow is also looking north. Ensuring Iran does not have sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—legally or in practice—will set a critical precedent for the NSR and other global chokepoints. To avoid a crisis on NATO’s northern flank, the U.S. and its allies must step up challenges to Russia’s claims to the NSR before the ice melts.
