Topline
President Donald Trump has increasingly pitted Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio against each other—asking fellow billionaires who they would prefer as his successor—as the Iran war is widely viewed as a crucial test for both ahead of a potential clash in the 2028 Republican primaries.
Key Facts
Rubio is likely to have the support of Wall Street and establishment donors, while Vance has deep ties to Silicon Valley, which has become more friendly with Republicans since Trump’s first term and was less of a factor in the 2016 presidential election, the last time Rubio ran.
Vance has also cozied up to billionaire donors as the Republican National Committee’s finance chair—and donations he solicits are widely viewed as expressions of support for a 2028 candidacy, the New York Times reported.
Numerous reports have emerged of Trump asking his billionaire friends who they support, and Trump has acknowledged publicly he’s watching the pair closely, telling the New York Post recently he likes both and could see them running as a team, though he said in August Vance was his “most likely” heir.
Neither Vance nor Rubio are considered staunchly MAGA, and both are previous critics of Trump.
Vance, a senator from Ohio for less than three years before he was elected vice president, represents the “New Right” wing of the party, along with his ally Tucker Carlson, favoring an isolationist world view and consolidation of power among local and state governments.
Rubio, a senator for 14 years whose Florida ties put him close to Trump and those in his Mar-a-Lago orbit, is widely viewed as an interventionist and foreign policy hawk who aligns more with traditional conservative ideology.
Likely Vance Backers
Vance would hope to count on the support of the world’s wealthiest man and only trillionaire, Elon Musk, whose $1.2 trillion estimated net worth dwarfs all other fortunes on the planet. Musk predicted at a November gathering of former officials in his Department of Government Efficiency a “great 12-year span” consisting of Trump’s last term and two with Vance in the White House, Politico reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the comments. The fundraising group Vance founded in 2019, the Rockbridge Network, has also kept billionaires in Vance’s orbit, with the Times noting billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss ($2.3 billion each) were in attendance at a recent conference for the group in Nashville, Tennessee. Hedge fund magnate Paul Singer (estimated net worth $6.7 billion)—who backed Rubio in 2015 and was previously critical of Vance—contributed the maximum amount, $443,000, to the RNC at Vance’s request and speaks regularly to the vice president, according to the Times, citing unnamed sources close to both of them. Vance has hosted RNC fundraising events headlined or attended by tech billionaires, including Joe Lonsdale ($2.7 billion) and Sergey Brin ($277.6 billion). Vance has maintained his close relationship with his former employer, Peter Thiel ($27.6 billion), who is largely credited for shepherding Vance’s rise in politics. Thiel gave $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC in 2022, the Times reported, and he led a campaign among tech executives to lobby Trump to pick Vance as his running mate, according to the Washington Post. During his time as vice president, Vance has reportedly built relationships with billionaires Jeff Yass ($67.4 billion), Stephen A. Schwarzman ($40.8 billion), Miriam Adelson ($34.4 billion) and John Paulson ($4 billion), according to the Times.
Likely Rubio Backers
During the 2016 presidential election, Rubio had support from Wall Street and establishment donors, including bOracle’s Larry Ellison ($231.6 billion), Citadel’s Ken Griffin ($51.6 billion) and car dealer Norman Braman ($3.9 billion). When Trump asked a group of about 25 GOP donors, including billionaire Patriots owner Robert Kraft ($13.8 billion) and Georgia GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson ($1 billion), at a dinner in February at Mar-a-Lago about who they’d prefer in 2028, “it was almost unanimous for Marco,” an unnamed source told NBC. Another unnamed attendee said the group was more “evenly split.” A Trump official noted to the outlet that “the Mar-a-Lago crew are not JD people.” Rupert Murdoch ($22.2 billion) reportedly seemed to prefer Rubio when Trump asked him at a dinner last year to compare the two. He called Rubio “brilliant” and said Vance has “the potential to be great,” according to an excerpt from reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan’s “Regime Change” obtained by Axios.
Crucial Quote
“In the vice president’s case, he is being mentioned for future office, and so people want to be able to start building that relationship,” RNC Chair Joe Gruters told the Times, adding that Vance “has probably been the most successful finance chairman in the history of the party.”
What To Watch For
Both Rubio and Vance have played major roles in the Iran war, with Vance serving as the chief negotiator with mediators and Rubio among the key decision-making team. Both could be praised for ending the war or blamed if the peace deal the U.S. and Iran signed this week falls apart.
Big Number
36%. That’s the share of likely GOP primary voters in a recent Emerson College poll who said they prefer Vance as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, compared to 35% who said they’d back Rubio. Vance’s support has plummeted from 52% in February, before the war, while Rubio’s has increased from 20%.
Key Background
Neither Vance nor Rubio have ruled out a presidential run, though Rubio has said he would support Vance if he ran. Vance said last week in an interview with CBS he would discuss a potential run with his wife, Usha, after the midterms. “People sort of assume that I’m sitting around, figuring out whether I’m gonna run for president . . . the way that I make decisions is that I try not to make them until I absolutely must.” Vance said he believes Trump would be “very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do.”
further reading
Both say there’s no race, but Rubio and Vance take a 2028 turn (CNN)
Trump Floats a Vance-Rubio Ticket for 2028 (New York Times)
Vance fronts the Iran deal as Rubio stays quiet (Semafor)
