The indie film sensations Backrooms and Obsession are poised to blast The Mandalorian and Grogu from the top of the domestic box office as the Star Wars film heads into its second weekend of release.
Directed by Kane Parsons, Backrooms earned $10.4 million in Thursday night previews ahead of opening in 3,442 North American theaters on Friday. Deadline projected that the film is heading toward a $33 million to $35 million opening day, which includes the Thursday previews, and forecasts a take of $76 million to $79 million in its opening frame. The forecast is much bigger than a couple of days ago, when the industry trade publication (and fellow trade Variety) each projected the film would open somewhere in the $40 million to $50 million range.
Even with those numbers, Backrooms, a horror thriller starring Chiwetel Ejiofor and Renate Reinsve, was projected to knock The Mandalorian and Grogu from the top of its opening box office perch.
Instead, The Mandalorian and Grogu is staring at a third-place finish behind writer-director Curry Barker’s Obsession.
The horror thriller starring Inde Navarrette and Michael Johnston has been overperforming since its May 15 opening, earning $17.1 million from North American theaters in its first weekend, which was followed by an unprecedented 39% percent increase in domestic revenue May 22-24 when it earned $23.9 million.
With Deadline’s projection of another $25 million from 2,780 North American venues through Sunday, Obsession — should the trade’s forecast hold— will cross the $100 million mark against the film’s miniscule $1 million budget before marketing costs.
The Force Is Not Awakening ‘The Mandalorian And Grogu’
With the power plays in full force from YouTube filmmakers Kane Parsons and Curry Barker, there’s no doubt that the film taking the biggest hit this weekend is The Mandalorian and Grogu.
Deadline is projecting a 69% drop at the domestic box office for the latest Star Wars entry, which, if it holds, would equate to a second weekend frame tally of $24 million from 4,300 North American theaters. If Deadline’s forecast holds, it will boost the film’s 10-day domestic tally to $136.3 million.
Starring Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver, The Mandalorian and Grogu earned $81.6 million from May 22-24 and tacked on another $16.4 million on Memorial Day to bring its four-day opening to $98 million. And while $98 million is a great opening for most films, it’s soft for anything from the Star Wars franchise.
With the $98 million four-day domestic tally, the Mando movie — which had a reported budget of $165 million before marketing — now holds the unenviable distinction of being the lowest opening of any Disney Star Wars film behind 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, which earned $103 million over the same four-day weekend period eight years ago. Solo, by the way, dropped 65% in domestic ticket sales its second weekend in theaters
By contrast, the Disney Star Wars film with the biggest three-day domestic opening was Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens, with $247.9 million in 2015, followed by Episode VIII – The Last Jedi with $220 million in 2017 and Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker, with $177 million in 2019. The first franchise’s first spinoff movie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, earned $155 million in 2016 to be fourth on the list of Disney’s Star Wars films, ahead of Solo: A Star Wars Story at No. 5.
Deadline projects that the Michael Jackson biopic Michael to earn anywhere from $13 million to $16 million from 3,118 North American theaters through Sunday for a fourth place finish. If the trade’s projection holds, it will bring Michael’s running domestic total to anywhere between $341.2 million to $344.2 million.
Apart from Backrooms, also opening in North American theaters this weekend is Nate Bargatze’s family comedy The Breadwinner, and the Brendan Fraser-Andrew Scott World War II historical drama Pressure. Deadline projects a $7.5 million to $8 million opening for The Breadwinner and a $5 million opening weekend frame for Pressure.
Note: This box office report will be updated through Sunday with the most current numbers as they become available. The final numbers for the weekend will be released on Monday.
