The MLB best home run bets slipped to an 18-65 record, with three no-bets after two misses on home run props for Chase DeLauter and Julio Rodriguez on Wednesday. Fortunately, home run bets are long-shot wagers, so bettors don’t need to get many correct to generate a profit.
As a result, even the unimpressive record for the MLB best home run bets has resulted in $661 in profit for anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds. The MLB best home run bets are a rollercoaster ride, and they’ve been headed downward lately. Gamblers must understand the downswings are part of the equation.
Tonight is a great opportunity for the rollercoaster to climb. Two left-handed-hitting outfielders in favorable matchups in their homer-friendly home ballparks have the most appealing home run props on Saturday’s MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
JJ Bleday (Cincinnati Reds – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+382) at DraftKings Sportsbook
JJ Bleday blasted his 19th home run of the 2026 campaign across 341 plate appearances last night, already his second-highest total for home runs in a season. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has hit 14 homers against righties, 13 at home and eight at home against right-handed pitching.
The 28-year-old hitter’s batted-ball data is mostly good, with some outstanding marks sprinkled in. Among 252 qualified hitters in 2026, Bleday is tied for 81st in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.8%), 81st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.6%), tied for 116th in hard-hit rate (41.9%), tied for 125th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.0 mph), tied for 64th in maximum exit velocity (112.6 mph), fifth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.6%) and 13th in steepest launch angle (21.2 degrees).
Bleday has a favorable matchup tonight. Braxton Ashcraft has allowed 16 home runs at 1.18 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 21 starts, allowing at least one in 11 starts this year. After keeping hitters in the yard through his first four starts, he’s permitted all 16 home runs in 17 subsequent starts. Furthermore, Ashcraft has allowed home runs in four of his last five starts, ceding two, two and three homers in three of those starts.
He also has some eye-catching splits. Ashcraft has allowed 10 home runs on the road, 13 to left-handed batters and seven on the road to lefties.
Bleday’s hitting conditions are also desirable tonight. Great American Ball Park’s 112 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks tied for ninth. Bleday should muscle up and match his career-high 20 home runs in a season with a homer tonight.
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+255) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez is MLB’s home run leader with 35 homers this season. Alvarez has launched 26 home runs against righties, 19 at home and 15 at home against right-handed pitching.
Predictably, MLB’s home run leader has incredible batted-ball data. Among 252 qualified batters this year, Alvarez is first in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.3%), fourth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.5%), tied for 10th in hard-hit rate (53.7%), tied for 17th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.0 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), seventh in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.9%) and tied for the 30th-steepest launch angle (19.7 degrees).
Jacob deGrom isn’t what he once was, but he’s still a quality pitcher. That said, deGrom has permitted 16 home runs at 1.31 HR/9 in 20 starts in 2026. The 38-year-old righty has allowed 11 home runs to lefties, 11 on the road and seven on the road against left-handed batters.
Finally, Alvarez’s park factors tonight are ideal. Daikin Park’s 115 park factor for homers since 2025 ranks tied for the fifth-highest mark. Alvarez has an excellent chance to hit a home run tonight.
