Friday’s MLB best home run bets were duds, as Munetaka Murakami and Bryce Eldridge failed to hit homers. Those misses dropped the season’s record for the MLB best home run bets to 16-55, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run props were suggested.
Long-shot bets won’t have a pretty record, but the record on home run props is good when accounting for the odds offered. As a result, the season’s profit is $842 for anyone who has bet $100 on the MLB best home run bets at the listed odds.
Today’s MLB best home run bets feature a switch-hitter in a plus matchup and a homer-friendly ballpark, as well as a left-handed slugger who hammers lefties and feasts on the road, facing a southpaw who struggles against left-handed batters.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds – SS)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+358) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Last night, Elly De La Cruz hit his 15th home run of the season across 330 plate appearances. De La Cruz has hit 10 homers in 166 plate appearances at home this year and five in 116 against righties at home.
The switch-hitting shortstop has fantastic batted-ball data. Among 254 qualified batters in 2026, De La Cruz is tied for 33rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.9%), 24th in barrels to per batted-ball event rate (14.8%), 12th in hard-hit rate (53.1%), tied for 33rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.1 mph), tied for eighth in maximum exit velocity (116.3 mph) and tied for 77th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.2%).
De La Cruz’s matchup and park factor are also ideal for him to hit a homer tonight. Javier Assad has allowed 10 homers at 1.60 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 14 appearances (seven starts) this year spanning 56.1 innings. Assad has also allowed eight home runs to 115 left-handed batters in 2026. In addition, Chicago’s bullpen has allowed an MLB-high 1.48 HR/9 this year.
The park factors are also helpful for De La Cruz’s chances of hitting a homer tonight. Great American Ball Park’s 114 park factor for homers is tied for the seventh-highest mark since 2025. The switch-hitting shortstop shouldn’t squander an opportunity to add another home run to his 2026 ledger, given his matchup and home park factors.
Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Bettors might not immediately recognize a lefty-lefty matchup between Matt Olson versus Matthew Liberatore as favorable for Olson’s homer outlook, but it is. Olson has ripped nine of his 25 home runs in 2026 in 176 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s also hit seven homers in just 90 plate appearances against southpaws on the road.
Meanwhile, Liberatore has ceded 17 homers in 18 starts this year. The 26-year-old southpaw has allowed six home runs to 94 left-handed batters, nine homers to 200 batters at home and three homers to 46 left-handed batters at home this season.
Circling back to Olson, his overall batted-ball data is excellent. Among 254 qualified batters in 2026, Olson is 26th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.4%), tied for 31st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.2%), 19th in hard-hit rate (51.9%), tied for eighth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.7 mph), tied for 89th in maximum exit velocity (111.6 mph) and tied for 48th in launch-angle steepness (18.1 degrees). Olson’s +400 odds to hit a home run in a tasty matchup tonight are tantalizing.
