The MLB best home run bets limped into the All-Star break with four incorrect home run props in the final two articles. Still, the season’s record sits at 16-57, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run prop was suggested.
The record might not appear to be anything special, but it’s rock-solid for long-shot bets. As a result, the season’s profit for MLB best home run bets is $642 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run props at the listed odds.
Friday’s MLB slate is stacked, featuring 15 games. There are many home run props to choose from, but two left-handed batters with favorable matchups and homer-friendly park factors have the most appealing home run bets, albeit with chalky odds.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+262) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez is one of MLB’s best home run hitters, and he ranks second in home runs this year, with 31. The 29-year-old slugger has hit 23 of his 31 home runs in 310 plate appearances against righties, 16 of them in 200 at home and 12 in 154 against right-handed pitching at home.
Alvarez has jaw-dropping batted-ball data. Among 256 qualified hitters this season, Alvarez is second in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.4%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.6%), 10th in hard-hit rate (53.2%), tied for 20th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), sixth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.9%) and 24th in steepest launch angle (19.8%).
Alvarez has the best matchup to hit a home run on Friday’s MLB slate. Dean Kremer’s 3.68 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this year are the most among today’s probable starters. Kremer has permitted nine home runs in four starts, allowing three, one, one and four in those turns. The 30-year-old righty has allowed seven home runs to 62 left-handed batters faced in 2026.
Alvarez’s chances of hitting a home run will also get a lift from playing at home. Daikin Park’s 115 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Alvarez should make the most of the perfect setup and tap into his immense power for a home run tonight.
Mickey Moniak (Colorado Rockies – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+271) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mickey Moniak has the platoon advantage at home tonight. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has had both substantial home-and-road splits and lefty-righty splits. Fortunately for him tonight, he’s excelled against righties at home. In 334 plate appearances against righties at home since 2025, Moniak has hit 24 home runs, with a 22.1% line-drive rate, 46.6% fly-ball rate, 20.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 51.8% pull rate.
Moniak also has decent batted-ball info. Among 256 qualified batters in 2026, Moniak is tied for 43rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.4%), tied for 50th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.4%), 112th in hard-hit rate (42.5%), tied for 134th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (92.9 mph) and sixth in steepest launch-angle (22.6 degrees).
Moniak has a mouthwatering matchup against Brady Singer at homer-friendly Coors Field. Singer’s 2.01 HR/9 are the third most among today’s probable starters. Singer has allowed 20 home runs in 18 starts this season, coughing up at least one in 12 and permitting multiple home runs in six. In addition, Singer has allowed 14 homers to 251 left-handed batters and 10 to 197 batters on the road this year.
Finally, Coors Field ranks tied for 12th in park factor for home runs (108) since 2025. Moniak should continue to take advantage of the platoon advantage in the thin air in Colorado and launch a home run against homer-prone Singer tonight.
