The MLB best home run bets are like a rollercoaster. They have their ups and downs, but that’s the nature of long-shot bets like home run props. Unfortunately, they have been on the downswing lately, with zero winners across six suggested home run bets in the previous three articles.
Losing streaks are part of the equation. Having said that, the season’s 16-59 record, with three no-bets, has generated a profit of $442 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds.
Tonight is an excellent opportunity to stop the slide and fatten the season’s profit. A left-handed-hitting first baseman with +330 odds to hit a homer in his homer-friendly home ballpark has one of the night’s best home run bets, and a switch-hitting second baseman facing a homer-prone southpaw has the other.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Bryce Harper has launched 20 home runs this year, belting 17 homers in 254 plate appearances against righties, 10 in 200 at home and eight in 125 against righties at home. In 494 plate appearances against righties at home since 2024, Harper has hit 32 home runs with a 19.0% line-drive rate, 39.6% fly-ball rate, 24.1% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB), 39.5% pull rate and 40.1% hard-hit rate.
The 33-year-old first baseman also has rock-solid batted-ball data. Among 255 qualified batters in 2026, Harper is tied for 70th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.2%), tied for 70th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.1%), 59th in hard-hit percentage (46.1%), tied for 74th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.5 mph), 42nd in maximum exit velocity (113.5 mph), tied for 91st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.4%) and has an 11.8-degree launch angle.
Harper’s matchup is tantalizing tonight. Emmet Sheehan has 1.64 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 17 starts this year, the fifth-highest mark among Monday’s projected starting pitchers. The 26-year-old righty has allowed 15 homers this season, permitting at least one in 10 starts, and allowing precisely two home runs in five turns. Sheehan has allowed nine home runs to 190 left-handed batters, nine to 151 batters faced on the road and four to 85 left-handed batters on the road this year.
Harper’s odds to hit a home run tonight are amplified by his home ballpark’s park factors, too. Citizens Bank Park’s 116 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the fourth-highest. Harper has a decent shot to hit a home run tonight at compelling +330 odds.
Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves – 2B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+489) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ozzie Albies has hit 14 home runs in 98 games and 425 plate appearances in 2026. The switch-hitting second baseman isn’t among MLB’s elite home run hitters. Still, he has a rock-solid total, and he’s done well against lefties.
Albies has hit 14 homers with a 19.3% line-drive rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate, 8.4% HR/FB and 47.1% pull rate in 472 plate appearances against lefties since 2024. This season, Albies has hit six home runs in 86 plate appearances against southpaws at home.
He’s not bereft of homer potential against a righty, either. Albies has hit eight home runs in 243 plate appearances against righties this year, which gives him an out to backdoor a home run against a right-handed reliever.
Nevertheless, Albies’s matchup against JP Sears is the primary draw for his home run prop. Sears allowed 10 home runs at 1.41 HR/9 in 14 Triple-A starts this year, and he’s been more homer-prone for the Padres. Sears has coughed up four homers at 1.83 HR/9 in four starts this season, allowing three home runs to 68 right-handed batters this year, permitting both to 32 right-handed batters faced on the road.
Albies’s +489 odds to hit a home run offered at DraftKings Sportsbook are tasty for such a favorable matchup.
