The cold streak for the MLB best home run bets spectacularly ended on Monday. Bryce Harper hit a home run at +330 odds, and Ozzie Albies hit one at +489 odds. Monday’s success doesn’t change the reality that homers are long-shot props, and there will be more droughts the rest of the season.
Still, the MLB best home run bets have a season record of 18-59, with three no-bets. They’ve generated $1,261 in profits for anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run bets at the listed odds.
A veteran left-handed-hitting first baseman and a rookie left-handed-hitting outfielder have the most eye-catching home run props on today’s jam-packed MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Freddie Freeman (Los Angeles Dodgers – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Freddie Freeman won’t challenge for a home run title, but he’s on pace to clear 20 homers for the 10th-straight non-pandemic-shortened season, hitting 15 through 429 plate appearances. The 36-year-old first baseman has drilled 11 homers against righties and six of them on the road against righties in 2026.
He also has stellar batted-ball info this year. Among 254 qualified hitters in 2026, Freeman is tied for 66th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.3%), tied for 88th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.3%), 74th in hard-hit rate (44.9%), tied for 72nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.5 mph), tied for in 54th launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.9%) and has a 13.2-degree launch angle.
Freeman’s matchup and park factors tonight are optimal for hitting a home run. Aaron Nola’s 2.01 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the third-most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Nola has surrendered 23 home runs in 20 starts, coughing up multiple homers in five of his last seven turns, and ceding one in one of the outlier contests.
As for the park factors, Citizens Bank Park’s 115 park factor for home runs since 2025 ranks tied for the fourth-highest mark. Freeman should take advantage of his matchup and hitting conditions tonight and launch a home run.
Chase DeLauter (Cleveland Guardians – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+505) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chase DeLauter has hit 11 home runs in 354 plate appearances in his rookie campaign after getting little seasoning in Double-A and Triple-A. The 24-year-old outfielder has hit nine of his 11 homers against right-handed pitching this year. Sadly, he’s hit just three of his home runs at home, but two of them were against righties at home.
Moreover, DeLauter’s batted-ball data is decent, and his matchup is juicy. Among 254 qualified batters this year, he is tied for 139th in barrels per plate appearance rate (5.1%), tied for 162nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (6.7%), tied for 72nd in hard-hit rate (45.0%), tied for 61st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.8 mph), tied for 100th in maximum exit velocity (111.2 mph), tied for 94th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.2%) and has a 13.4-degree launch angle. It’s certainly not a pristine batted-ball profile, but it’s above average.
DeLauter’s chances to hit a home run are significantly amplified by his matchup. Bailey Ober has 1.59 HR/9 in 14 starts. Digging deeper, Ober has surrendered eight of 13 home runs this year to 132 batters faced on the road, including coughing up six to 73 lefties.
In addition, after allowing only two home runs through his first five starts, Ober has coughed up 11 in nine subsequent starts. He’s also allowed multiple home runs in three of his last five starts. DeLauter’s +505 odds to hit a home run offered at DraftKings Sportsbook make it worthwhile to look through some of DeLauter’s blemishes to bet his home run prop in such a tantalizing matchup.
