A pair of losing MLB best home run bets on Wednesday dropped the season’s record to 18-61 and three no-bets. The record for home run props isn’t impressive without adding context, but it’s quite good for long-shot bets, such as home run bets.
As a result, anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds this year is up $1,061. The profits are nice, as they award some wiggle room for an inevitable cold streak. Home run bets are challenging to hit, and stacking losing picks is part of the equation.
Still, as the season’s profits illustrate, carefully picking home run props can leave bettors in the black. Tonight offers two more compelling home run bets for slugging first basemen with above-average power and favorable matchups. Furthermore, the odds for their home run props are tasty.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Jake Bauers (Milwaukee Brewers – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+364) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jake Bauers is having a career year in his age-30 season, including logging a career-high 18 home runs already in 2026 in 93 games and 367 plate appearances. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has drilled 15 of his home runs this year in 275 plate appearances against righties, 10 in 159 at home and nine in 139 against right-handed pitching at home.
The veteran’s batted-ball info supports his power outburst this season. Among 255 qualified batters in 2026, Bauers is tied for 49th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.9%), tied for 34th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.5%), 13th in hard-hit rate (53.0%), tied for 30th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.2 mph), 20th in maximum exit velocity (114.8 mph), tied for 97th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.3%) and has an 11.6-degree launch angle. Bauers also has a 19.5% line-drive rate, 38.1% fly-ball rate, 22.0% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 42.3% pull rate.
Bauers has a sweet matchup on Friday. Tomoyuki Sugano’s 1.79 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the fourth-most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Sugano has yielded 18 home runs in 17 starts, allowing multiple homers in back-to-back starts and permitting at least one in five straight. Finally, the 36-year-old righty has allowed 12 home runs to 196 left-handed batters faced and 11 to 203 on the road. Bauers can take advantage of the drool-inducing matchup and hit a home run at nifty +364 odds.
Bryce Eldridge (San Francisco Giants – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+484) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryce Eldridge hit five homers in 30 games and 137 plate appearances in 2026, and after figuratively stubbing his toe initially after the Giants called him up, he’s settled into a groove, slugging 10 homers in 60 games and 243 plate appearances. The 21-year-old bopper has hit eight homers in 185 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, five in 108 at home and four in 78 versus righties at home.
While Eldridge’s home run output is stellar, it doesn’t fully illustrate his immense power and eye-catching batted-ball data. Among 255 qualified hitters this season, Eldridge is tied for 53rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.8%), tied for 41st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.8%), seventh in hard-hit rate (55.0%), tied for 15th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.1 mph), 43rd in maximum exit velocity (113.4 mph) and tied ror 102nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (34.9%). He also has a 14.2-degree launch angle, 24.8% line-drive rate, 37.6% fly-ball rate, 17.9% HR/FB and 43.0% pull rate.
Eldridge can tap into his raw power against Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has 1.29 HR/9 and only a 16.1% strikeout rate in eight starts this season. He’s allowed a 31.7% line-drive rate, 38.3% fly-ball rate and 10.9% HR/FB. Rodriguez’s inability to miss bats plays right into Eldridge’s wheelhouse, making his +484 odds to hit a home run too good to pass up.
