The MLB best home run bets got out of their rut last night. Samuel Basallo hit a home run at +330 odds, and Ben Rice later hit a homer at +235 odds. So, the season’s record for MLB props is 15-50, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run bets were suggested.
The record might not seem impressive, but it’s outstanding for a long-shot prop like home runs. As a result, the season’s profit sits at $1,092 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run props at the listed odds.
Losers will be inevitable, and another drought will happen. Still, a pair of left-handed hitters have eye-catching home run props in plus matchups with favorable park factors on Saturday’s MLB slate. They have an opportunity to expand the season’s profits and provide more room for error and missed picks during the remainder of the season.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Brandon Lowe (Pittsburgh Pirates – 2B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+240) at Hard Rock Bet
Brandon Lowe smacked 31 home runs last year in 134 games and 553 plate appearances, which was the second-highest total of his career, behind his 39 homers in 149 games and 615 plate appearances in 2021. He probably won’t make a run at a new career high, but it’s not entirely out of the question, and he should exceed last year’s total, with 20 home runs in 82 games and 366 plate appearances in 2026.
The 31-year-old left-handed hitter has a 17.1-degree launch angle, a 21.0% line-drive rate, a career-high 45.4% fly-ball rate, a 19.2% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and a 47.6% pull rate. He’s lifting the ball to tap into his power, and his batted-ball data is excellent.
Among 251 qualified batters this season, Lowe is tied for 44th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.3%), tied for 44th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.1%), tied for 60th in hard-hit rate (46.3%), tied for 36th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.9 mph), tied for 19th in maximum exit velocity (111.1 mph) and tied for 80th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.8%).
Lowe’s matchup is arguably the best for hitting a home run on Saturday’s MLB slate, given the sample sizes of the probable pitchers. Among today’s probable starting pitchers, Zack Littell’s 2.48 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this year is the third-highest mark, but the two pitchers ahead of him have pitched nine and three innings, respectively.
In addition, Nationals Park has the 12th-highest park factor for home runs (107) since 2025. Lowe’s home run prop has a chalky line, but it’s palatable, and even taking the +225 odds offered at DraftKings Sportsbook is reasonable in markets without Hard Rock Bet.
Owen Caissie (Miami Marlins – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Owen Caissie won’t be confused for a well-rounded hitter, but his calling card is power, and he’s muscled up for 11 home runs in 77 games and 241 plate appearances in 2026. Caissie launched a homer at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, which ranks third in park factor for home runs (119), last night.
Caissie has hit all 11 of his home runs against right-handed pitching this season, including six on the road. He has a tasty matchup today.
Aaron Civale has permitted 14 home runs at 1.86 HR/9 in 14 starts in 2026, allowing at least one homer in nine of his starts, and coughing up six homers in six starts at home. Civale has allowed 10 home runs to and struck out only 11.9% of the 176 left-handed batters he’s faced this year. Civale’s inability to strike out lefties at an acceptable clip is ideal for Caissie to tap into his power.
Among 251 qualified hitters in 2026, Caissie is tied for 51st in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.1%), tied for 19th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (15.2%), tied for 58th in hard-hit rate (46.4%), tied for 42nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.8 mph), tied for 60th in maximum exit velocity (112.6 mph) and third in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (46.4%). Caissie should take advantage of his power against a low-strikeout pitcher and smash a home run today.
